"Food and Retail Workforce to Decrease by Over 600,000 Each in 20 Years"

Hankyungyeon and Nodongyeon Joint Seminar
"Creating Work-Family Balance Environment to Encourage Labor Market Participation"

An analysis has revealed that due to population decline caused by low birth rates, the workforce in the food service and retail sectors will decrease by more than 600,000 workers each by 2042 compared to 2022.

A staff member is wiping a table at a restaurant in Jung-gu, Seoul. Photo by Mun Ho-nam munonam@

At a seminar titled "The Impact of Population Decline on the Labor Market and Response Tasks," held on the 25th at the FKI Tower in Yeouido, Yeongdeungpo-gu, Seoul, hosted by the Korea Economic Research Institute under the Korea Economic Association and the Korea Labor Institute, Professor Lee Cheol-hee of Seoul National University presented estimated changes in employment workforce size (labor supply). The analysis covered labor supply for ages 20 to 74 across various industries from 2022 to 2042.

According to the "Population Projections Reflecting Future Population Estimates as of 2022" released by Statistics Korea on April 11, the total population of Korea is expected to decrease from 51.67 million in 2022 to 49.63 million in 2042. Consequently, the industrial workforce is also expected to shrink.

The workforce in the food service and drinking establishments sector is estimated to decline the most. Professor Lee predicted that over 20 years, the workforce in food service and drinking establishments will decrease by 669,426 workers. The retail sector (excluding automobiles) is expected to decline by 610,006 workers, and wholesale and commodity brokerage (237,255 workers) will also see significant decreases. The supply of highly educated workers is expected to decline notably in retail, educational services, and healthcare sectors. The supply of low-educated workers is projected to decrease significantly in food service, drinking establishments, and agriculture and forestry sectors.

Conversely, labor supply is expected to increase in social welfare services (291,823 workers), architectural technology, engineering, and other scientific and technical services (95,148 workers), among others.

Professor Lee Cheol-hee explained, "To respond to the labor supply reduction caused by population changes, it is necessary to increase the economic participation rates of women and the middle-aged population," adding, "We must enhance productivity through measures such as alleviating career interruptions for women, improving health and human capital quality among middle-aged and older adults, and increasing job compatibility after retirement."

There was also a call to create a work-family balance environment by promoting flexible work arrangements to increase labor market participation among women in their 30s and 40s. Researcher Choi Se-rim of the Korea Labor Institute stated, "If companies activate flexible work systems, it will have the effect of attracting high-quality female talent with strong career goals and promoting sustainable growth," and added, "The government should strive to create a flexible usage environment for parental leave and reduced working hours during childcare periods for workers in occupations where flexible work is difficult."

Opinions were also raised to strengthen the policy momentum of the deputy prime minister-level "Population Planning Strategy Department," whose establishment plan was announced by President Yoon Seok-yeol on the 19th. Professor Yang Jeong-ho of Sungkyunkwan University, who participated in the comprehensive discussion, suggested, "Rather than dispersing the 100 trillion won budget, concentrated budget support for one or two population policy sectors, guaranteeing a ministerial term of at least 10 years for the Population Strategy Planning Department, and revolutionary and bold policy implementation will help solve population decline and transform Korea's labor market and economic growth paradigm."

Jung Cheol, Chief Research Officer of the Korea Economic Association and President of the Korea Economic Research Institute, stated, "Population decline not only causes difficulties in securing workforce for companies but also leads to a shortage of skilled workers, innovation decline, and productivity reduction due to population aging," emphasizing, "A multifaceted approach is needed to address population decline issues, including enhancing labor market flexibility and expanding labor supply."