Bernstein "Sharp Rise if Pro-Coin Trump Wins"
TD Cowen "Both Candidates Must Be Watched"
Bernstein analysts have predicted that cryptocurrencies could emerge as the second 'Trump Trade' in this year's US presidential election, Bloomberg reported on the 24th (local time).
The view is that if former President Trump returns to the White House, a cryptocurrency rally will continue due to improvements in the regulatory environment.
In the 2016 presidential election, when former President Donald Trump won, US stocks, Treasury yields, and the dollar value all surged simultaneously, giving rise to the term 'Trump Trade.'
Bernstein analysts stated, "The Republican Party sees cryptocurrencies not only as a factor to capture voters' support but also as a meaningful source of funding," adding, "If voter sentiment shifts more toward the Republican Party, cryptocurrencies will eventually become a major 'Trump Trade.'"
On the 11th, former President Trump met with executives of US cryptocurrency mining companies at his Mar-a-Lago residence and expressed support for the cryptocurrency industry. Through social media, he also stated, "I want to make all the remaining (yet to be mined) Bitcoin 'Made in America.'" Additionally, at a recent fundraising event held in San Francisco, he declared, "I will be the cryptocurrency president." He also announced plans to accept campaign donations in virtual currencies.
However, some caution against overly optimistic views. US investment bank TD Cowen noted that while former President Trump is currently signaling support for cryptocurrencies, he could revert to a cryptocurrency skeptic after winning the election. They said, "If former President Trump offers proposals other than full support, it could raise concerns about a return to a skeptical approach."
Former President Trump's shift to a pro-cryptocurrency stance is relatively recent. During his presidency in 2019, he stated that Bitcoin was not a currency, and even after leaving office, he made negative remarks about cryptocurrencies for some time. However, as he challenges for re-election, he has been making pro-cryptocurrency statements to confront the Democratic Party, which views the carbon emissions of the cryptocurrency mining industry negatively.
TD Cowen also predicted that President Joe Biden might change his existing stance on cryptocurrencies during the debate on the 27th. They said, "Both candidates should be watched carefully regarding cryptocurrencies," adding, "It would be a mistake to believe that either candidate will deliver results."
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