[Good Morning Stock Market] "KOSPI Focuses on Exchange Rate Trends and Chinese Economic Indicators"

[Image source=Yonhap News]

On the 17th, the Korean stock market is expected to move while closely watching the won-dollar exchange rate trend. This is because uncertainties about interest rate cuts and political turmoil in Europe are factors that raise the upside of the exchange rate. Meanwhile, China's economic indicators for May, to be announced on the same day, are also considered factors that could impact the market.

On the 14th (local time) at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), the Dow Jones Industrial Average, centered on blue-chip stocks, closed at 38,589.16, down 57.94 points (0.15%) from the previous trading day. The S&P 500 index ended at 5,431.60, down 2.14 points (0.04%). Meanwhile, the Nasdaq index closed at 17,688.88, up 21.32 points (0.12%).

The U.S. stock market closed mixed despite strong performance in artificial intelligence (AI) stocks such as Adobe (14.5%) due to solid earnings. This was influenced by conservative remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials, weakness in European markets due to political uncertainty in France, and sluggish U.S. consumer sentiment leading to profit-taking.

Han Ji-young, a researcher at Kiwoom Securities, explained, "The fact that hawkish officials such as the presidents of the Cleveland and Chicago Federal Reserve Banks still expressed cautious views on interest rate cuts seems to have somewhat burdened the stock market," adding, "The Fed indicates that it is mindful of both upside inflation risks and downside economic risks simultaneously."

Kim Seok-hwan, a researcher at Mirae Asset Securities, pointed out, "Uncertainty about interest rate cuts and the early French general election, which has seen a marked rightward shift, are factors that increase the upside risk of the won-dollar exchange rate," emphasizing, "Continuous attention to exchange rate trends is necessary."

China's economic indicators are also factors that could affect the Korean stock market. China will announce May retail sales and industrial production figures on the morning of the same day. Earlier, China's first-quarter economic growth rate exceeded market expectations at 5.3%. If a rebound in real economy indicators is confirmed, expectations for a full-scale economic recovery in China are expected to be reflected in global stock markets.

In particular, whether the alienation phenomenon of Samsung Electronics, which touched 80,000 won intraday on the 14th, will be resolved is also an important point. One researcher diagnosed, "The key is Samsung Electronics' stock price and the resulting supply-demand rotation. At the theme level, market attention is expected to focus on whether the supply-demand concentration phenomenon in sectors related to the Daewang Whale Project, such as utilities and trading companies, which are showing sharp fluctuations, will continue."