Modi Secures Third Term... Ruling Coalition Barely Secures Majority Seats

Secured Majority Through Alliance but Declined Compared to 5 Years Ago
Due to Economic Issues and Exclusion of Non-Hindu Religions
Indian Stock Market Plunges 6% Following Vote Count Results

The ruling coalition led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), headed by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, won the Indian general election. As a result, Prime Minister Modi became the second three-term prime minister of India, following Jawaharlal Nehru, the country's first prime minister.

Modi stated, "Today's victory is a victory for the world's largest democracy," adding, "Indian voters have shown tremendous faith in both the BJP and the National Democratic Alliance (NDA)." He also said, "The country will witness a new chapter of critical decisions," and "this is Modi's guarantee."

Narendra Modi, Prime Minister of India
[Photo by Yonhap News]

However, the number of seats won was significantly lower than initially expected. According to the Election Commission of India and local media outlet The Times of India, the BJP secured 240 seats. This marks the first time since coming to power in 2014 that the party failed to secure a majority on its own, a sharp decline from the 303 seats won in the 2019 election.

The ruling coalition, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), barely crossed the majority threshold with 293 seats, surpassing the required 272 seats but falling far short of the 353 seats won five years ago. Meanwhile, the opposition coalition INDIA secured a total of 234 seats, increasing its strength compared to five years ago.

Exit polls had projected the ruling coalition to win up to 392 seats, while the opposition coalition was expected to secure around 120 seats.

Although Prime Minister Modi succeeded in winning a third term, the fact that the coalition only narrowly secured a majority suggests that governing the country may not be easy going forward.

Political experts analyzed that the election results have weakened Modi's position. Milan Vaishnav, head of the South Asia program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said, "Now the BJP will have to rely on the goodwill of coalition partners," adding, "This means that other parties will play important roles not only in policy-making but also in government formation, and they are expected to demand their share." Rashid Kidwai, a political analyst at the Observer Research Foundation, described the results as "a dilution of the Modi brand" and "a major setback."

Rahul Gandhi, former president of the Indian National Congress (INC) and leader of the opposition coalition INDIA, said, "We do not like the way the ruling coalition has run the country over the past decade," and added, "The election results send a strong message to Prime Minister Modi."

Experts believe that economic issues contributed to the weakening support for Modi and the BJP. Public policy expert Yamini Aiyar pointed to the opposition's attacks on unemployment, inflation, and inequality, stating, "These issues resonated strongly and dealt a blow." Under Modi's administration, the Indian stock market reached record highs, but youth unemployment soared, and only a portion of the population benefited from the economic boom.

There were also criticisms that Modi's attempts to consolidate Hindu votes alienated Muslim voters, who make up about 14% of the population, and undermined constitutional and democratic values. Aiyar noted, "Voters are tired of Hindu nationalism being the only option on the table."

The Indian stock market closed at a record high on June 3rd, following exit polls predicting Modi's overwhelming victory, but plunged on June 4th after the election results. The increased political instability was due to the growing likelihood that the pro-business ruling coalition would lose its dominance in the political arena. The benchmark Nifty 50 index closed at 21,884.50, down 5.93% from the previous day. The Sensex also closed at 72,079.05, falling 5.74%. Notably, shares of Adani Enterprises, led by billionaire Gautam Adani, a longtime ally of Modi, plummeted 19% that day.