"Guilty Verdict" Trump: "The Real Judgment Is the November Election"... Will It Affect Voter Sentiment? (Comprehensive)

Former U.S. President Donald Trump was found guilty on all charges related to the so-called ‘hush money’ scandal about five months ahead of the November presidential election. This marks the first time in U.S. history that a former president has been convicted in a criminal trial. Local analysts predict that he could face up to four years in prison or probation. Trump is scheduled to speak at a press conference the following morning.

[Image source=EPA Yonhap News]

Jury Unanimously Finds Trump Guilty... First Former U.S. President Convicted

A jury of 12 Manhattan residents concluded their deliberations on the afternoon of the 30th (local time) at the Manhattan Criminal Court, finding former President Trump guilty on all 34 criminal charges against him. This came about six weeks after the trial began on May 15 and just two days after the jury started deliberations. Initially, it was expected that the trial would continue into next week, but it was wrapped up in about 10 hours.

With this verdict, Trump became the first former U.S. president to be convicted in a criminal trial in American history. The New York Times (NYT) reported, "It took less than two minutes to declare guilt on all 34 charges," adding, "After the verdict, Trump sat with a blank yet somber expression," describing the atmosphere at the scene. CNN reported, "Immediately after, Trump frowned and quickly left the courtroom," noting "both Trump and his son showed angry expressions with flushed faces."

Previously, Trump was tried on charges that he paid $130,000 (about 170 million KRW) through his then-personal lawyer Michael Cohen to silence former adult film actress Stormy Daniels, and then falsified company records to disguise the payment as legal consulting fees. Prosecutors argued that this was not merely an accounting fraud but an attempt to conceal a separate violation of election laws intended to influence the 2016 U.S. presidential election, asserting that Trump’s charges constitute a felony.

Sentencing based on the guilty verdict will take place on July 11, just days before the Republican National Convention (July 15?18), where Trump is expected to be officially nominated as the Republican presidential candidate. The NYT projected that Trump could face up to four years in prison or probation. However, since Trump is expected to appeal the verdict, it may take several years before the case is finally resolved.

Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg, who led the investigation, said at a press conference immediately afterward, "I did my job. Following facts and law without fear or favor," adding, "The only voice that matters is the jury’s voice." Michael Cohen, Trump’s former personal lawyer who played a decisive role in the guilty verdict, emphasized in a message sent to major media outlets, "Today is an important day for accountability and the rule of law," stressing, "The truth always matters." Meanwhile, Trump’s defense attorney Todd Blanche called the verdict "inappropriate for relying on Cohen’s testimony," labeling Cohen as "the greatest liar in history."

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

Trump: "The Real Verdict is the November Election"... Fundraising Site Crashes Amid Supporter Rally

Immediately after the verdict, Trump spoke in front of the Manhattan Criminal Court, calling it "a disgraceful and rigged trial by a corrupt judge." He declared, "I am innocent," emphasizing, "The real verdict will be delivered by the people on November 5 (election day)." He added, "Our entire country is going to hell. All of this was done by the Biden administration to hurt political opponents," and vowed, "We will fight to the end and win."

He also posted on his social media platform Truth Social a message saying, "VICTORY ON NOVEMBER 5TH. SAVE AMERICA!!!" His son, Eric Trump, claimed on X (formerly Twitter) that "May 30, 2024, will be remembered as the day Donald Trump won the 2024 presidential election."

This guilty verdict has once again galvanized his support base. Trump is scheduled to hold a press conference at Trump Tower in Manhattan at 11 a.m. Eastern Time on the 31st. At this event, he is expected to reiterate that the verdict is a politically motivated witch hunt and appeal to his supporters for votes.

Immediately after the verdict, Trump’s campaign fundraising site saw a surge of supporters, causing the fundraising platform 'WinRed.com' to crash. The Trump campaign stated on their X account, "So many Americans rushed to support former President Trump on WinRed that the website went down," promising, "We will restore the website as soon as possible." This surge in supporter mobilization has been observed each time Trump’s criminal indictments and judicial risks have come to light.

The NYT noted, "Trump can still become president despite the guilty verdict," and predicted, "Having long claimed that lawsuits against him are politically motivated, he will likely portray himself as a victim again and try to leverage this verdict to his advantage during the election campaign."

U.S. President Joe Biden also responded to Trump’s supporter mobilization by urging his own supporters for political donations. In a post on X, he emphasized, "There is only one way to keep former President Trump out of the White House," adding, "At the ballot box." He also included a campaign donation link, urging, "Donate to our campaign today." Biden’s campaign sent text messages to supporters warning, "Trump’s side could set fundraising records," and claimed, "That money will be used to retaliate against opponents, threaten them, and try to return to the White House."

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

Trump vs. Biden... Will the Close Race Be Affected?

Locals are closely watching how this guilty verdict will impact the presidential race about five months away. Trump is currently criminally indicted on four separate matters, and this trial is the first among them.

There is speculation that renewed concerns over Trump’s judicial risks and potential loss of support could benefit his competitor, President Biden, who is maintaining a narrow lead within the margin of error.

However, the prevailing analysis locally is that this verdict will not significantly affect the November election. According to a recent joint survey by PBS NewsHour and NPR, 67% of U.S. voters said the guilty verdict against Trump would have no impact on the election, and 76% believed that even an acquittal would not influence the outcome.

In fact, as with previous judicial risks, the verdict could serve as a catalyst for rallying Trump’s base. About 25% of Republican respondents in the PBS NewsHour survey said they would be more likely to vote for Trump if he were found guilty.

Frank Bruni, a journalism and public policy professor at Duke University, wrote in an NYT op-ed that "the guilty verdict may not matter to Trump." The Guardian noted, "Polls consistently show that public opinion on Trump is already reflected regardless of the verdict," and highlighted that the outcome could vary depending on President Biden’s future actions.