[New York Diary] Shifting Black Voter Sentiment in the U.S.: Trump Makes Inroads with Voters of Color

Recently, a crowd of over 10,000 people gathered in South Bronx, New York, an area primarily inhabited by Black and Hispanic residents. They came to see the campaign rally of former President Donald Trump, who has been confirmed as the Republican candidate for the U.S. presidential election. This is the first time in eight years that Trump has held a rally in New York, a Democratic stronghold. Notably, the Bronx has a Black and Hispanic population ratio exceeding 90%, making it a traditional Democratic support base in New York State. For former President Trump, this is tantamount to entering the heart of the 'enemy territory' (a Democratic stronghold). Some foreign media even described his visit to the Bronx as a "bold move."

At the Bronx rally, former President Trump used his characteristic provocative rhetoric to stir voters. He raised his voice, saying, "The most negative impact of illegal immigration is being borne by our Black and Hispanic populations," adding, "They are losing jobs, homes, and everything else they could possibly lose." These remarks targeted the Black and Hispanic populations in the Bronx, many of whom are immigrants. In reality, New York is suffering from a surge in illegal immigrants and the resulting taxpayer-funded support, as well as deteriorating public safety. Many immigrants with legal status are opposing this situation. At the rally, Trump actively targeted Black voters by featuring Black Congressman Byron Donalds as a guest speaker.

The direct reason for former President Trump's campaign in a Democratic stronghold is the judicial risks surrounding him. He is currently tied to New York, where the court handling his criminal trial related to hush money in a sexual misconduct case is located. Some analysts suggest that Trump is aiming for a surprise upset in New York State. Since 1984, New York has never chosen a Republican presidential candidate in the U.S. presidential election. However, Trump, who positions himself as a champion of the non-mainstream working class, is actively targeting young people of color from low-income groups who harbor strong resentment against the current administration due to high inflation rates. Considering Trump's unique humor and appeal that shine in offline speeches, there is ample room to win over voters of color residing in New York State. Even if not for New York itself, Trump’s campaign activities within the state are inevitable to send messages to other states. He has visited Hispanic grocery stores and construction sites in Harlem and even visited a New York fire station carrying pizzas in both hands.

Although not enough to change the overall trend, support for former President Trump among Black voters has noticeably increased. According to the Pew Research Center, a U.S. public opinion research organization, Black voters supported President Biden at 92% and former President Trump at 8% in 2020. Currently, the support rates are 77% for President Joe Biden and 18% for former President Trump, significantly narrowing the gap. Most notably, support for Trump among younger Black voters stands out. Among Black voters under 50 years old, 68% support President Biden, while 29% support former President Trump.

As the defection of Black voters, a traditional support base, becomes serious, President Biden has also begun efforts to secure his 'core supporters.' Recently, he gave a commencement speech at Morehouse College, which has a majority of people of color, and visited Georgia, where about one-third of the voters are Black, to court his support base. With signs of defection among young people and people of color due to inflation and the Middle East war, there is an interpretation that despite his age, Biden is actively campaigning toward his traditional support base.

Regarding this year's U.S. presidential election, there are many variables to consider, including the war involving the Israeli-Palestinian militant group Hamas, inflation, immigration policies, and the judicial risks related to former President Trump. Although nearly six months remain until the general election, the numerous variables make predictions difficult. Amid analyses that the race is 'neck and neck,' the voting intentions of people of color, including Black voters, are becoming a significant factor in this election. For most countries heavily influenced by the U.S. presidential election results, the unpredictable U.S. election landscape inevitably deepens tension and concern.