[Bread-Baking Typewriter] An Era with More 'Gaemocha' than Strollers... The Population Cliff at Our Feet

2024 Population Report: Facing the Crisis of Population Extinction and Seeking Solutions

Weekend outlet near Seoul. It is filled with visitors pushing strollers everywhere. The talk of a population extinction crisis due to low birth rates seems unfounded. However, if you look closely inside the strollers, you will find dogs instead of babies. Among the many strollers, those carrying babies are few and far between. It is an era where so-called ‘gae-mocha’ (dog strollers) outnumber baby strollers.

2024 Population Report: The Population Extinction Crisis and Its Solutions diagnoses the population extinction crisis facing South Korea. By 2031, half of the population will be over 50 years old; by 2038, the number of military conscripts needed will collapse by 200,000; by 2044, 10 million working-age people will disappear. By 2050, there will be a historic high of 19 million elderly people; by 2060, the number of deaths will be five times the number of births; and by 2065, South Korea will enter the era of a 30 million population.

The future of South Korea as diagnosed by the book is bleak. Yet, those living in reality are ignoring the future changes brought by demographic shifts. According to a 2023 survey on marriage and childbirth perceptions among the 2030 generation conducted by the Hanbando Future Population Research Institute, 82.2% of 1,408 respondents aged 20-39 recognized South Korea’s low birth rate as a serious issue. However, only 57.2% responded that it was personally relevant to them.

The book sounds an alarm to Koreans who treat population issues as someone else’s problem. It does not simply diagnose the problem as “young people these days don’t marry.” Nine experts meticulously examined the halving of the total fertility rate from 1.65 to 0.72 over the past 30 years. They also propose concrete policies that can change Koreans’ perception of population issues as distant concerns.

Despite South Korea spending over 280 trillion won on birth promotion policies in the past 20 years, the population crisis has worsened. Experts attribute this to policies failing to keep pace with changes in social norms and perceptions. Marriage is no longer a necessity but a choice, and the perception that “marriage equals childbirth” has long been broken. Various statistics and surveys presented in the book highlight the urgent need for a paradigm shift in policy.

Among several alternatives, the book calls for a paradigm shift in immigration policy. It especially emphasizes the importance of regional immigration policies to counteract local extinction. By 2047, 72 out of 229 cities, counties, and districts nationwide will enter extinction risk stages. By 2067, 59 will reach high-risk stages, meaning they will disappear within 25 years. The government and local authorities have offered various tax incentives, but the effects have been minimal.

Ultimately, the book argues that regional extinction must be prevented through changes in immigration policy. While immigration policy is not a fundamental solution, it is a practical alternative. The book recommends establishing detailed immigration policies that select immigrants who are needed and relatively easy to integrate socially.

Modern South Korea faces the most severe population extinction crisis among countries worldwide. The golden time is running out. Now is the time to comprehensively diagnose the population crisis and prepare for the future of the next generation.

2024 Population Report: The Population Extinction Crisis and Its Solutions | Written by Gye Bong-o et al. | Hanbando Future Population Research Institute | 317 pages | 17,000 won