[Seoul Voter Analysis] ① People Power Party's 'Apgujeong-dong' VS Democratic Party's 'Guro 3-dong' Showdown

Votes for the Ruling Party Increased from 90% Compared to the 21st General Election, While the Opposition Dropped from 73%
Democratic Party Achieves a Big Win in Seoul with 37 Seats Despite Lower Vote Share
Half of the Ruling Party's Gains in 10 Areas Are in Kim Jaeseop and Na Kyungwon's Districts

In the 22nd general election, it was found that the People Power Party's support rate increased in 90% of the districts in Seoul compared to the 21st general election. On the other hand, the Democratic Party of Korea saw a decline in support in 73% of the districts in Seoul.

According to an analysis by Asia Economy of the vote count results by precinct in Seoul for the 22nd general election from the National Election Commission, out of 425 precincts in Seoul, the People Power Party's vote share increased in 383 precincts (90.1%) compared to the previous election. The vote share decreased in 42 precincts, accounting for 9.9%. The Democratic Party's vote share rose in only 116 precincts and fell in 309 precincts (72.7%). Nevertheless, the Democratic Party secured 37 out of 48 seats in Seoul, achieving a landslide victory. Despite the defeat, the People Power Party showed an improved vote share, suggesting that the upcoming nationwide local elections in two years could see even closer contests than this general election, depending on circumstances.

By precinct, the People Power Party recorded the highest increase in support in Dobong-gap and Dongjak-eul compared to the 21st general election. This is attributed to the influence of Kim Jaeseop, the People Power Party winner in Dobong-gap who narrowly won in the tough northern Seoul area, and Na Kyung-won, the winner in Dongjak-eul. Among the top 10 precincts with the highest increase in People Power Party vote share compared to the 21st election, five are constituencies of Kim Jaeseop and Na Kyung-won. Kim received 41.5% of the vote from voters in Chang 4-dong, Dobong-gu in the 21st election, but this time he was chosen by 52% of residents, an increase of 10.6 percentage points. Na, who also ran in Dongjak-eul in the 21st election, received 48.8% support in Sadang 1-dong, up 10.5 percentage points.

The area where the vote shifted most towards the Democratic Party compared to the 21st general election was Hang-dong in Guro-gu. In the 21st election, 47.6% of Hang-dong residents voted for Democratic Party lawmaker Lee In-young, but this time 58.7% of voters supported him, an increase of 11.1 percentage points.

When initially analyzing the rate of change in support, precincts in Geumcheon-gu tended to lean more towards the Democratic Party, while precincts in Gwanak-gu leaned more towards the People Power Party. However, in Geumcheon-gu, votes that had been split in the 21st election due to independent candidate Cha Seong-su, formerly of the Democratic Party, returned to Democratic Party lawmaker Choi Gi-sang. In Gwanak-gu, the People Power Party candidate saw a significant increase because Kim Dae-ho, the United Future Party candidate for Gwanak-gap in the 21st election, was expelled and did not run. For these reasons, these areas were excluded from the ranking, and the top 10 precincts were selected. This analysis excludes early voting outside the precincts. Early votes cast outside the voting area and delivered by mail were counted in aggregate and not broken down by precinct, so they were not included in the precinct-level analysis.

In this general election, the areas with the strongest support for the Democratic Party and the People Power Party in Seoul were Guro 3-dong in Guro-gu and Apgujeong-dong in Gangnam-gu, respectively. Among the top 10 precincts with the highest People Power Party votes in Seoul, nine were located in Gangnam and Seocho districts. The remaining one was Jamsil 7-dong in Songpa-gu. Apgujeong-dong in Gangnam-gu was the only precinct to exceed 80% with a vote share of 80.6%. For the Democratic Party, support was relatively evenly distributed. The top 10 precincts included Guro 3-dong, Myeonmok 5-dong, Hwagok 8-dong, and Sanggye 8-dong, all showing vote shares in the low 60% range.