[Seoul Voter Sentiment Analysis]③ As Park Yong-jin and Lee Jun-seok Leave, Gangbuk and Nowon Voter Sentiment Shakes

'Gangbuk-gu Eul' Democratic Party Support Drops 10%P
'Dobong-gu Sanggye-dong' People Power Party Support Falls Sharply

Asia Economy conducted a detailed analysis of the vote counting results by unit in Seoul from the 22nd general election, managed by the Central Election Commission, and compared them with the 21st general election. The analysis revealed that support for the Democratic Party candidate in Gangbuk-gu Eul, Seoul, dropped by more than 10 percentage points. In the Sanggye-dong area of Nowon-gu, support for the People Power Party candidate weakened.

Among the 10 areas with the largest drop in Democratic Party vote share, six were in the Gangbuk-gu Eul district. Gangbuk-gu Eul received 64.5% support in the 21st general election and 53.0% in the 22nd general election, marking an 11.5 percentage point decline across the entire constituency. Even when looking at the vote counting units, support for the Democratic Party weakened in all jurisdictions within Gangbuk-gu Eul. The jurisdictions under Gangbuk-gu Eul include Samgaksan, Songjung, Beon 3, Songcheon, Mia, and Samyang-dong.

Gangbuk-gu Eul has never been won by a conservative party and is traditionally known as a Democratic Party stronghold. Since the incumbent, Representative Park Yong-jin, secured an unusually high support rate of 64.45% in the 21st general election, this analysis may reflect a base effect. Even with a drop of more than 10 percentage points, the Democratic Party's support rate still exceeded the majority.

However, the Democratic Party reversed its candidate nomination twice in this district and only finalized Han Min-su as the candidate on the registration deadline day. This series of nomination controversies can be seen as one of the factors contributing to the weakened support.

The 10 Seoul districts where support for the People Power Party candidate declined the most are Banpo-bon-dong in Seocho-gu, Daechi 1-dong in Gangnam-gu, Nangok and Miseong-dong in Gwanak-gu, and Sanggye 1, 2, 5, 8, 9, and 10-dong in Nowon-gu. The Sanggye-dong area stands out. During the 21st general election, Sanggye-dong was part of Nowon-gu Byeong district. With the abolition of Nowon-gu Byeong in the 22nd general election, Sanggye-dong was incorporated into Nowon-gu Eul.

In the 21st general election, Kim Seong-hwan, the Democratic Party candidate, and Lee Jun-seok, the United Future Party candidate, competed in Nowon-gu Byeong. The United Future Party was the predecessor of the People Power Party. Kim won with 53.2% of the vote, but Lee also gained 44.4%, closely trailing. Comparing the overall vote shares in Nowon-gu Eul in the 22nd general election, Democratic Party candidate Kim Seong-hwan received 58.5%, while People Power Party candidate Kim Jun-ho got 39.3%.

The change in candidates is analyzed to have influenced the results. Kim Seong-hwan, who was re-elected in Nowon-gu Byeong, ran and won in Nowon-gu Eul in the 22nd general election, achieving a third term, while Lee Jun-seok moved to the Hwaseong-si Eul district in Gyeonggi Province and was elected there.

Banpo-bon-dong in Seocho-gu, which showed the largest drop of 10.7 percentage points, is analyzed to have been affected by a complete reconstruction starting in 2022, which changed the number of eligible voters. The number of voters in this area dropped sharply from 9,276 in the 21st general election to 304 in the 22nd general election. In the 22nd general election, only 206 out of 304 voted, indicating a distortion of voter sentiment due to the very low turnout. Other districts in Seoul recorded a minimum of 1,227 voters (Sogong-dong, Jung-gu) and a maximum of 21,888 voters (Hwagok 1-dong, Gangseo-gu).