[Seoul Voter Sentiment Analysis]② As Early Voting Boxes Open in 3 Seoul Locations... Democratic Party 'Comeback'

Reversals in Yangcheon Gap, Yeongdeungpo-gu Eul, and Gangdong-gu Gap
Early Voting Shows Continued Democratic Party Lead
No Regions Won by Democratic Party Where People Power Party Led in Early Voting

Asia Economy's detailed analysis of the vote counting results by unit in Seoul from the 22nd general election, provided by the Central Election Commission, confirmed that there were three places where early voting results overturned the main voting results. These were Yangcheon-gu Gap (Hwang Hee), Yeongdeungpo-gu Eul (Kim Min-seok), and Gangdong-gu Gap (Jin Sun-mi). In these areas, the winners were trailing on election day but took the lead through early voting, flipping the outcome.

In Yangcheon-gu Gap, Koo Ja-ryong, the People Power Party candidate, received 42,490 votes (54.23%) in the main vote, surpassing Hwang Hee of the Democratic Party, who got 33,213 votes (42.39%), by over 9,000 votes. However, the early voting results were completely different. Hwang Hee secured 37,460 votes (57.4%), outpacing Koo, who received 26,167 votes, by more than 10,000 votes. After a close race with Koo, Hwang's victory was confirmed around 3 a.m. on April 11, when the early voting boxes were opened, with a margin of 2,016 votes.

The same pattern was observed in Yeongdeungpo-gu Eul and Gangdong-gu Gap. When counting only the votes from election day, People Power Party candidates led, but the Democratic Party winners overturned the results through early voting. In Yeongdeungpo-gu Eul, Park Yong-chan of the People Power Party received 29,316 votes (55.0%) on election day, beating Kim Min-seok of the Democratic Party, who got 22,811 votes, by 6,505 votes. However, in early voting, Kim received 7,436 more votes than Park, securing the win. Including absentee, overseas, and other special votes, Kim won by a narrow margin of 1,100 votes.

In Gangdong-gu Gap, the early voting boxes were opened late, and the winner was only confirmed around 5 a.m. This area had been considered a tight race even before the general election. Jeon Ju-hye of the People Power Party received 41,695 votes (53.8%) in the main vote, leading Jin Sun-mi of the Democratic Party by 8,260 votes. However, once the early voting boxes were opened, the situation changed. Jin secured 11,298 more votes than Jeon in early voting, clinching a last-minute victory.

In Seoul’s Yongsan-gu and the districts of Seocho-gu Gap and Eul, Gangnam-gu Gap and Eul, and Songpa-gu Gap and Eul, where People Power Party candidates won, the Democratic Party also gained narrow victories in early voting but could not overturn the final results. Among the 48 Seoul constituencies, there was no case where the People Power Party led in early voting in areas won by Democratic Party candidates.

Although there was analysis suggesting that conservative voters participated more in early voting for the 22nd general election, the Democratic Party still tended to dominate early voting in Seoul. However, compared to the 21st general election, the gap in support between the Democratic Party and the People Power Party in out-of-district early voting appeared to narrow. In areas such as Seongbuk-gu and Gangbuk-gu, where the Democratic Party had an advantage in out-of-district early voting in the 21st general election, the Democratic Party’s support slightly declined in the 22nd election.