[News Terms] The Middle East's 'Shadow War' at a Turning Point

Since the Break of Diplomatic Relations with Israel in 1979
Direct Airstrikes Shift Amid Weakening Control of Affiliated Militias

Since Iran established its current theocratic regime through the 1979 revolution, it has launched an airstrike targeting the Israeli mainland for the first time, leading to forecasts that the nature of the 'Shadow War' that has unfolded in the Middle East for over 40 years will change significantly. Until now, Iran's offensive against Israel, which was conducted through proxy wars using Shiite militias in the Middle East, is now shifting to a direct offensive.

On the 13th (local time), an Israeli air defense missile was launched to shoot down an Iranian drone flying over Ashkelon, Israel. [Ashkelon=Photo by Reuters and Yonhap News]

According to the British BBC, the Shadow War began after the Ayatollah Khomeini regime took power in Iran in 1979, overthrowing the pro-American regime within Iran and severing diplomatic ties with Israel. At that time, although Iran criticized Israel as an enemy of Islam, it did not directly attack Israel because it was focused on an all-out war with Saddam Hussein's regime in Iraq, which was the immediate enemy.

However, Iran supported anti-Israel militia forces in the Middle East behind the scenes, such as the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), the Palestinian armed faction Hamas, and the Lebanese Shiite armed faction Hezbollah. Major militia organizations in the Middle East aligned with Iran's Middle East policy and launched military provocations against Israel and U.S. military bases in the region whenever necessary. Through mediating these actions, Iran was able to sit at the negotiating table with the United States. This series of events, from military provocations to negotiations, has been referred to as the Middle Eastern version of the Shadow War.

However, after the 2003 Iraq War, the situation in the Middle East changed drastically, and Iran's status within the regional militia organizations weakened significantly. During nearly two decades of civil wars in Iraq and Syria, the Iranian government, whose economic power was weakened by U.S. and Western sanctions, greatly reduced its military and financial support to its affiliated militias.

In particular, the incident on October 7 last year, when Hamas launched an indiscriminate attack on Israel's southern border area without Iran's approval, raised doubts about Iran's control over its militias. Although Iran summoned the Hamas leader to Tehran for reprimand, the battle in the Gaza Strip has continued for over six months, and no breakthrough for a ceasefire has been achieved.

As these affiliated militias began to act independently and dissatisfaction grew within Iran regarding the existence of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which consumes a huge budget, the Iranian government could no longer rely solely on diplomatic gains through the Shadow War. To prevent further unrest, Iran sought a way to demonstrate its resilience while avoiding full-scale war, which has manifested in this recent airstrike.

The Iranian government's strong indication of retaliatory attacks against Israel and even its announcement of the airstrike to the U.S. and neighboring countries three days in advance are interpreted as having a distinct underlying intention. Although the immediate fear of escalation between Israel and Iran or a fifth Middle East war may not materialize, the international community is concerned about how Iran's now overt military provocations might lead to an unintended war.