Quiet North Korea's Sun Day... Military Provocation Movements [Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club]

Additional Satellite Launches and Military Provocations Quiet
Possibility of Strengthening Alliances Amid Middle East Conflicts

North Korea remains quiet as it marks the birthday of Chairman Kim Il-sung, known as the ‘Day of the Sun.’ However, the military is maintaining a state of readiness, considering the high possibility of additional satellite launches by North Korea.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

According to the military on the 15th, North Korea observed the 112th anniversary of Chairman Kim Il-sung’s birthday, the ‘Day of the Sun’ (April 15), without showing any unusual activity. South Korea, the United States, and Japan are using reconnaissance satellites and ground- and sea-based radars to closely monitor North Korea’s preparations for launching reconnaissance satellites. It is reported that North Korea has virtually completed preparations for launching its second reconnaissance satellite. Based on signs such as maintenance of facilities related to the launch around the new launch site at Dongchang-ri, there has been speculation about an additional satellite launch timed with the Day of the Sun.

On April 8, Defense Minister Shin Won-sik told reporters, "If technical improvements proceed smoothly, we expect it to be in mid-April," adding, "Since April 15 (Kim Il-sung’s birthday) is a special day for North Korea, they will try to launch around that time, but if it is delayed by a few days, it is reasonable to keep the window open until the end of April."

Although no additional satellite launch is currently underway, the possibility of provocations remains high. North Korea may take advantage of the distraction of the United States, which is focused on Ukraine and the Middle East. Through provocations, North Korea could strengthen solidarity not only with Russia and China, with whom it has recently maintained close relations, but also with Middle Eastern countries such as Iran. Furthermore, depending on what military measures the United States takes in the current Middle East situation, it may gauge the level of defense it provides on the Korean Peninsula.

Some analysts suggest that North Korea may accelerate diplomatic efforts rather than provocations. On April 13, North Korean State Affairs Commission Chairman Kim Jong-un met with Zhao Leji (趙樂際), the third-ranking official in China’s power hierarchy and chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress, who visited Pyongyang. It is highly likely that they discussed a summit between President Xi Jinping and Chairman Kim Jong-un to mark the 75th anniversary of North Korea-China diplomatic relations on October 6. Zhao’s statement at the meeting that "the traditional friendship between the two countries was directly established and carefully nurtured by the leaders of both parties and countries’ previous generations" supports this analysis.

A North Korea expert said, "North Korea is strengthening ‘bloc diplomacy’ through close ties with its traditional ally China following Russia," adding, "This is partly to respond to the strengthened trilateral cooperation among South Korea, the United States, and Japan on North Korean nuclear issues, and partly to showcase their presence during the U.S. presidential election phase in November."