"If the President Doesn't Change, '3 Years Could Feel Too Long' May Become Reality" [General Election Analysis Roundtable]

"General Election, What Had Been Piled Up Burst Like a Balloon"
"Han Dong-hoon, Possibility of Comeback After Political Hiatus"
'Election Genius' Lee Jun-seok... The Dawn of 'Conservative Generational Change'

Editor's NoteThe 22nd general election has come to an end. With the opposition, led by the 'regime judgment theory,' achieving a landslide victory, the Yoon Seok-yeol administration will continue in a 'minority government with opposition majority' situation for the remainder of its term. Will the two major camps continue their extreme confrontation, or seek compromise? Also, what does the future hold for the Joguk Innovation Party, which suddenly rose to become the 'third largest party in the National Assembly,' and for Lee Jun-seok, leader of the Reform Innovation Party, who succeeded in entering the National Assembly after four attempts? Asia Economy held an expert roundtable to evaluate and forecast the election results. Attendees included Kim Man-heum, former head of the National Assembly Legislative Research Office; Kim Seong-su, professor at Hanyang University; Cha Jae-won, special professor at Busan Catholic University; and Choi Byung-chun, director of the New Growth Economy Research Institute (in alphabetical order).

◆Society= So Jong-seop, Managing Editor of Political Society

Please provide a general evaluation of the general election results.

On the afternoon of the 12th, a roundtable discussion on the general election results is taking place at the Asia Economy headquarters in Jung-gu, Seoul. Photo by Dongju Yoon doso7@

▶Kim Seong-su: The ruling party likely felt a sense of crisis regarding the 'regime judgment theory' itself. In the early stages of the election period, the dynamic was framed as a showdown between Han Dong-hoon, Emergency Committee Chairman of the People Power Party, and Lee Jae-myung, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, which seemed to concentrate strength on the ruling party. However, variables emerged such as the appointment of former Defense Minister Lee Jong-seop as ambassador to Australia and the controversial remarks by Hwang Sang-moo, the President's Office's Senior Secretary for Civil Society. While it is good that the president pushes forward with conviction on medical reform, politically it is different. The world has shifted to a post-materialistic and pluralistic society, and the problem was implementing policies unilaterally rather than communicating.

Also, how would the president know about inflation? The problem lies with the aides. It was good that the aides came up with ideas to show that prices were stable, but the fact that it backfired significantly was a major issue. As these issues were highlighted, the Han Dong-hoon?Lee Jae-myung dynamic reverted to Yoon Seok-yeol?Lee Jae-myung, and opinions on regime judgment were amplified. Additionally, progressive-leaning voters disappointed by the Democratic Party's nomination turmoil and Lee Jae-myung's judicial risks lost their way and chose the newly emerged Joguk Innovation Party, saying 'we will also contribute to regime judgment,' which seems to have led to more opposition candidates winning.

▶Choi Byung-chun: What had been building up exploded. By ousting figures like Assemblyman Ahn Cheol-soo, former leader Na Kyung-won, and leader Lee Jun-seok, the party engaged in 'subtractive politics.' Reviewing the process of the People Power Party's victory in the last presidential election, the 'partial generational coalition' advocated by Lee Jun-seok was a key factor. However, President Yoon broke that generational coalition and also ousted the 'market conservative' or 'reform conservative in the metropolitan area' symbolized by former Assemblyman Yoo Seung-min, thereby shrinking the voter coalition himself. On top of that, public resentment accumulated like savings due to family scandals such as the Kim Geon-hee special investigation and relatives' corruption, and burst like a balloon in this election result.

Former Director of the Legislative Research Office, Kim Man-heum. Photo by Dongju Yoon doso7@

▶Kim Man-heum: Looking at the seats, it can be said that the Democratic Party achieved a landslide victory, and the ruling party suffered a crushing defeat. It is a judgment or punishment of President Yoon Seok-yeol's leadership, and I would like to say the Democratic Party 'struck gold.' This election was held in a similar form to the previous 'unfavorable presidential election,' with both sides having weaknesses.

Leader Lee Jae-myung fundamentally has the limitation of judicial risks and faces issues of party factionalization internally. This was not alleviated during the election period. There were even repeated court appearances, and as the phrase 'dying without fame' suggests, he blatantly nominated close aides. The only positive factor for the opposition during the election was the 'fandom for Joguk.' This is a rare case globally. We must seriously consider whether any country has held an election with both first and second largest opposition party leaders being criminal defendants. Yet, the result was successful. While accumulated dissatisfaction with President Yoon's leadership exploded, the Joguk Innovation Party played a significant catalytic role in consolidating Democratic Party supporters.

▶Cha Jae-won: There were three inflection points. The first was the emergence of Chairman Han. The president disappeared from the political scene. The second inflection point was Leader Lee Jae-myung's nomination. The internal strife intensified, marking the start of the crisis. The third was the so-called 'Run Jong-seop incident.' The president, who had been invisible in politics, reappeared decisively by appointing former Minister Lee as ambassador to Australia. At this point, Chairman Han should have responded more strongly. He missed the timing in Yongsan, and another 'big wave' broke out. Trapped in the frame of ignorance, disregard, and incompetence regarding people's livelihood, the Joguk Innovation Party emerged again as a decisive blow, overturning the previously favorable situation for the People Power Party.

Even after these three inflection points, Chairman Han should have played a role but instead engaged in so-called 'Morning Briefings,' targeting only Leader Lee Jae-myung every morning. Initially, this was refreshing even to moderate supporters, but as the ruling party leader, he failed to show what he intended to do as a governing force. Ultimately, this led to a crushing defeat.

How do you evaluate President Yoon Seok-yeol's leadership, and what are the prospects for changes in government policy direction?

▶Kim Seong-su: In opinion polls, the president's approval rating is mostly around 37?38%, which, when applied to 300 seats, corresponds roughly to the current People Power Party seats. Many regions were closely contested, and if the ruling party had overturned those, they would have secured over 120 seats. Despite the Democratic Party's Yang Moon-seok and Kim Jun-hyuk scandals, the fact that those candidates were elected reflects the public's disappointment with the regime.

▶Kim Man-heum: President Yoon maintains prosecutorial leadership rather than presidential leadership. While I cannot easily agree with the characterization of 'prosecutorial dictatorship,' what President Yoon does is a form of administrative control or prosecutorial leadership. Leadership suitable for representative democracy requires communication with the people and reflecting their demands. However, President Yoon gives the impression of leadership from the Yushin era. Chairman Han emphasized regime judgment against Lee Jae-myung and Joguk, but failed to address the more fundamental issue, namely President Yoon himself, which led to limitations.

▶Choi Byung-chun: I do not really know what President Yoon wants to do. During the Park Geun-hye administration, even when the opposition opposed, the government tried to push forward legislation, negotiating and adjusting to pass bills. In contrast, President Yoon has never held a meeting with opposition leaders, which can be seen as a sign that he has no agenda. The Yoon administration talks about pension reform, labor reform, and education reform, but there are no government bills proposed and under negotiation between ruling and opposition parties.

Looking at the timing when the controversy over medical school quotas began, President Yoon's approval rating surged. For the first time, a poll showed positive ratings surpassing 40% at this time. When the administration confronted the Cargo Truckers Solidarity Union and first raised the three major tasks of pension reform, labor reform, and education reform, approval ratings also rose. The public seemed to feel 'the president cares about national affairs' and 'he wants to do something.' However, since this never translated into output and remained at the rhetorical level, approval ratings dropped again after about two weeks.

Professor Cha Jaewon, Special Appointment, Busan Catholic University. Photo by Dongju Yoon doso7@

▶Cha Jae-won: There is certainly a need for change, but the president does not seem likely to change. President Yoon is thoroughly a person with 'prosecutor DNA.' He divides issues into good and evil. People believed in the agenda of 'fairness and common sense' because it addressed the hypocrisy and double standards symbolized by the 'Joguk incident' in the previous administration. The problem is that after being elected, he thinks only he is 'infallible.' Therefore, he ousted Lee Jun-seok as an 'internal traitor' to make the People Power Party his own party, cutting off the future sprouts instead of embracing the '30s, zero-term party leader,' a groundbreaking talent.

If things do not change, the 'three years is too long' that Leader Cho talks about may become reality. When former President Park Geun-hye was impeached, the ruling party had 123 seats, yet impeachment still occurred. The People Power Party now has 108 seats. Ruling party lawmakers no longer need to watch the president's eyes. The moment public sentiment turns, the regime can fall.

▶Kim Man-heum: To add on leadership, the opposition's loss of check-and-balance power has allowed President Yoon's prosecutorial leadership to continue. Although the opposition had 170?180 seats, Leader Lee Jae-myung, who has judicial risks, held party leadership.

What are your forecasts for the future paths of Han Dong-hoon, Lee Jae-myung, Lee Jun-seok, and Cho Kuk?

Choi Byung-cheon, Director of the New Growth Economy Research Institute. Photo by Yoon Dong-joo doso7@

▶Choi Byung-chun: Given Lee Jae-myung's landslide victory, it is highly likely he will run for party leader. Having the party leader title is effective for delaying trials. A notable point was the alliance with the Progressive Party. When the Joguk Innovation Party emerged, floor leader Hong Ik-pyo and others kept their distance, mindful of the moderate public's rejection. However, the Progressive Party is even more rejected by moderates. It has influence over mass organizations like the Korean Confederation of Trade Unions. From this perspective, I think Lee Jae-myung is considering running presidential primaries while carrying first or second trial cases. If mass organizations from the popular movement side are mobilized for organizational convenience, it could bring in about 1 to 1.5 million votes. After becoming party leader, he may consider an organic cooperative relationship with the Progressive Party faction and run for president.

Looking at Chairman Han as the next presidential candidate for the ruling party, I think it will be difficult as President Yoon deteriorates further. President Yoon's weakness is an extension of the prosecutorial worldview, and the phrases Chairman Han used in this election, like 'politics is like a dog' and 'judgment of Lee and Cho,' also reflect this worldview. If President Yoon deteriorates further, the perception that 'former prosecutors are not suitable as conservative leaders' may apply to Chairman Han like a guilt-by-association. Then, opportunities may go to Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon, former Minister Won Hee-ryong, Daegu Mayor Hong Jun-pyo, and others.

The most interesting figure is Leader Lee Jun-seok. The curtain has risen on conservative generational change. Looking at the birth years of conservative young lawmakers like Lee Jun-seok, Cheon Ha-ram, Kim Jae-seop, and Kim Yong-tae, they are 1985, 1986, 1987, and 1990 respectively. The concept of youth generational change is whether one conforms to or rebels against the existing order. Leader Lee Jun-seok could become the 'second Kim Jong-pil.' Currently, the 60s?80s generation aligns with the People Power Party, the 40s?50s generation with the Democratic Party. If the 20s?30s generation intervenes, women tend to be progressive-leaning independents, men conservative-leaning independents. In this generational structure, Leader Lee's role is similar to that of former Prime Minister Kim Jong-pil in the past regional structure.

▶Kim Man-heum: Except for Assemblywoman Heo Eun-ah, all from the so-called 'Cheon-A-Yong-In' group entered the National Assembly, which is quite meaningful. However, it is hard to say that Leader Lee's election was met with great public enthusiasm. Due to the unique characteristics of the Gyeonggi Hwaseong-si E district, and the Democratic candidate Gong Young-woon exposing several weaknesses, he gained momentum at the end and won. If politics continues as 'game politics' regardless of value orientation, Leader Lee's utility will be great, but I have not seen him pursue any public values so far. While he is quick and responsive in power struggles, as a next leader, there are question marks.

Chairman Han, like President Yoon, has the weakness of being a former prosecutor. When President Yoon ran for president, questions arose about whether a former prosecutor was suitable to run the government, but he covered this by saying 'use me for regime change.' However, judging from this campaign, Chairman Han showed considerable political and strategic sense. Although some may criticize his prosecutorial worldview in attacking opponents, since the opponents were not just suspects but defendants, prosecutorial wording was inevitable. Although the Democratic Party regained a majority, if criticized in future actions, Chairman Han may regain attention.

Professor Kim Seongsu, Hanyang University. Photo by Yoon Dongju doso7@

▶Kim Seong-su: For Leader Lee Jae-myung, the intra-party primary is now most important, and he is in a favorable position. Pro-Lee (Jae-myung) figures have entered the National Assembly in large numbers, enabling institutional support. The issue is how to resolve judicial risks afterward. If he becomes party leader again, trials may be prolonged, and his path to the presidency will depend heavily on evaluations in local elections.

For Leader Cho, the Supreme Court's decision is pending, and the judge who handled the verdict of his spouse, Jeong Gyeong-sim, has been assigned again. If there is no linkage in rulings, judicial order collapses, so the outcome is somewhat predictable, but how long Leader Cho can delay the verdict is most important. Also, it is very interesting to see what roles those elected from the Joguk Innovation Party will play.

Chairman Han's future depends on local elections and the operation of the 22nd National Assembly. Although he stepped down as emergency committee chairman, he has not declared retirement from politics. Chairman Han has a popular base and political sense. If an early party convention is held, he may have a chance to regain strength in a power vacuum. Having built his political base through this election, he seems likely to challenge again.

Leader Lee Jun-seok was very strategic in choosing his electoral district. While his election has symbolic meaning in visible game politics, the public makes emotional judgments, so if he fails to show public values, his political lifespan may be limited.

▶Cha Jae-won: Among Lee Jae-myung's judicial risks, the Public Official Election Act is most notable. I expect the first trial results by the first half of the year, which will cause political upheaval. The immediate task is the party convention in August. If conflicts escalate more than during the nomination turmoil, defections from the anti-Lee (Jae-myung) and pro-Moon (Jae-in) factions are highly likely. If they leave the Democratic Party, they will likely join the Joguk Innovation Party, starting a race between Leader Lee and Leader Cho. Another issue is public sentiment. People voted for the Democratic Party because they disliked the People Power Party and President Yoon and had no alternatives, but depending on the Democratic Party's performance in the 22nd National Assembly, public sentiment could change anytime, which is problematic.

Leader Cho deserves close attention. If the Supreme Court fails to reach consensus, the case will move to a full bench, significantly delaying the final verdict. Also, if one or two charges are partially overturned with acquittal and remanded, the trial will restart from the second trial. This means Leader Cho has considerable time. A notable point about the Joguk Innovation Party's vote power is that it defeated the Democratic Union in Honam and ranked first. Honam voters are making a strategic choice that 'Cho Kuk, not Lee Jae-myung, could be an alternative.' Interestingly, Leader Cho spoke in the Busan dialect wherever he went in Honam. This was a strategic move knowing that a 'progressive candidate from Yeongnam' would win. When Leader Cho declared his candidacy at Busan Democratic Park, I once evaluated it as not a parliamentary run but a presidential bid, and indeed the presidential race has begun. He is not simply aiming for the presidency but has intelligently set the agenda of opening the '7th Republic,' which can be seen as a centrist value.

Chairman Han has sufficient potential for a comeback. His limitation was failing to show his own content, but this was partly because he was too conscious of President Yoon. Now, he no longer needs to watch President Yoon's eyes. Supporters of Chairman Han do not support him simply because he is conservative; many voters think he is new. His fashion and speech style attract young generations. If he fills his own content and highlights his characteristics during his political hiatus, opportunities may come.

Leader Lee Jun-seok seems to have even stronger vitality than the hardy indongcho flower. In the structure of the two major parties, especially for a ousted ruling party leader to break through this gap is remarkable. Overcoming a double-digit defeat to win is also tremendous. If he runs for the next presidency, he is likely to propose candidate unification with Chairman Han or form a coalition government as a strategic move.