Lee Jae-myung, a landslide victory but cannot smile freely
Han Dong-hoon, a crushing defeat but blocks the constitutional amendment threshold
Lee Jun-seok, preserves the legacy of reform conservatism
With the April 10 general election ending in a landslide victory for the opposition, the fortunes of the next presidential candidates diverged. Lee Jae-myung, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, moved one step closer to the next presidency despite judicial risks. Han Dong-hoon, emergency committee chairman of the People Power Party, bore the burden of defeat but left room for a comeback by maintaining the constitutional amendment threshold. Lee Jun-seok, leader of the Reform New Party (elected from Hwaseong-si Eul), and Ahn Cheol-soo, elected from Seongnam Bundang-gap of the People Power Party, made a dramatic recovery and could become dark horses.
Lee Jae-myung Closest to the Next Presidency
According to political circles on the 11th, Lee Jae-myung reaffirmed his status as the politician closest to the next presidential election by achieving a landslide victory in this election. The Democratic Party was reborn under Lee Jae-myung’s leadership through the nomination process and secured a sweeping victory in the general election. Riding on the public sentiment confirmed in the election and parliamentary power, Lee Jae-myung is expected to stand in opposition to President Yoon Suk-yeol. Moreover, potential intra-party rivals such as Kim Du-kwan, candidate for Yangsan-si Eul in Gyeongnam, and Lee Kwang-jae, candidate for Seongnam Bundang-gu Gap in Gyeonggi, suffered defeats, leaving Lee without significant competition within the party.
However, Lee Jae-myung’s expression was not entirely bright. On the 11th, he maintained a stern look while watching the vote count broadcast at his office in Gyeyang-gu Eul, Incheon. Contrary to exit polls, the Democratic Party failed to secure enough seats to amend the constitution and lost in key battlegrounds such as Dongjak-gu Eul, Mapo-gu Gap, and Yongsan, where they had invested the most effort. Furthermore, in the Busan, Ulsan, and Gyeongnam (PK) region, where they initially expected a strong performance, they managed to secure only four seats. The election also made a clear competition with Cho Kuk, leader of the Cho Kuk Innovation Party, inevitable. Although Cho Kuk’s future is uncertain due to a prison sentence in the second trial, a comparison between the opposition’s potential leaders became unavoidable.
Han Dong-hoon Prevents the Worst through Conservative Unity
Immediately after receiving the exit polls, Chairman Han expressed disappointment, but as the vote count proceeded, he secured victories in some metropolitan areas and narrowly defeated the Democratic Party in the PK region, thus securing at least a minimal foundation for a comeback. Maintaining the constitutional amendment blockade line was likely due to his late-stage appeal for conservative unity.
Han, who took office as the People Power Party emergency committee chairman at the end of last year amid high expectations, showed limitations in appealing to moderate voters during this election. While presenting a vision to close the gap in the general election, he also appeared to be mindful of conservative public opinion by raising issues such as early voting. In his relationship with the president, he neither boldly addressed controversies such as First Lady Kim Geon-hee’s luxury handbag scandal, former Ambassador Lee Jong-seop’s departure controversy, nor former Presidential Office civil society chief Hwang Sang-mu’s remarks, nor did he defend the president. Ultimately, he bore responsibility for an unprecedented general election defeat amid this dilemma. However, given the absence of a next presidential candidate at a level comparable to Chairman Han within the ruling party, there is a growing possibility that his role will be emphasized over time.
Lee Jun-seok Revived, Potential Leader of Reform Conservatism?
Lee Jun-seok is expected to be recorded as the figure who achieved the most dramatic comeback in this general election. He succeeded in overturning an election where he was trailing by a 20 percentage point margin in the polls. Nicknamed the “Minus 3-term veteran” (MaSamJung), he entered the National Assembly along with two proportional representation elected members, securing a foundation for reform conservatism. Especially as his former party, the People Power Party, faces turmoil following the general election defeat, Lee Jun-seok could emerge as a leader of reform conservatism, significantly expanding his political influence.
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