Biden on the Rise... Polls Show 1% Point Lead Over Trump Following State of the Union Address

Biden Leads Trump by 1% Point in 3 Polls
Support Struggles but Tight Race After State of the Union Address

President Joe Biden is leading by a 1 percentage point margin in virtual matchups against former President Donald Trump, his competitor in the upcoming November presidential election, according to a series of recent polls. After trailing Trump for a prolonged period, Biden has been showing an upward trend in approval ratings since his early-month State of the Union address, creating a neck-and-neck race.

On the 18th (local time), according to The Hill, a U.S. political news outlet, a poll commissioned by the Democratic super PAC Progress Action Fund to Public Policy Polling showed President Biden with 46% support, leading former President Trump, who had 45%, by 1 percentage point (margin of error ±3.4 percentage points).

There are other polls indicating Biden’s lead. According to a Reuters-Ipsos poll conducted from the 7th to the 13th with 3,356 respondents, Biden held 39% support, ahead of Trump’s 38% by 1 percentage point (margin of error ±1.8 percentage points). Additionally, a Civics-Daily Kos poll conducted from the 9th to the 12th with 1,324 respondents showed Biden at 45% and Trump at 44%, confirming Biden’s advantage (margin of error ±2.8 percentage points).

The recent polls showing Biden’s lead are interpreted as the effect of his firm stance against Trump during the State of the Union address on the 7th, which helped consolidate his support base. Analysts also suggest that delivering a speech lasting over an hour helped alleviate some concerns about his age, contributing to the rise in approval ratings.

Joe Jacobson, founder of the Progress Action Fund, analyzed, "President Biden is acting offensively and gaining momentum by contrasting his achievements with former President Trump’s extreme agenda. Voters are being persuaded by the Democratic narrative."

However, many polls still show former President Trump leading Biden. Since the November election matchups were confirmed early and there are still eight months remaining until the election, many variables are expected to influence the race.

Heath Brown, associate professor of public policy at the City University of New York, stated, "Both campaigns know that this race is currently tied. It is likely to remain this way for some time, and each campaign is executing strategies accordingly."