Decline in Marriages Since 2012
Reasons Include 'Lack of Marriage Funds' and More
The number of marriages has dropped by 40% over the past decade. Changes in perceptions about marriage are cited as the background.
According to Statistics Korea's 'December 2023 Population Trends' and the National Statistical Portal (KOSIS) on the 3rd, the provisional number of marriages last year was 193,673.
This is a 40.0% decrease compared to 2013, ten years ago, when there were 322,807 marriages. The number of marriages fluctuated until 2011 (329,087 marriages) but has been declining since 2012. It decreased for 11 consecutive years until 2022 (191,690 marriages). Last year, the number increased by 1,983 (1.0%) due to postponed weddings during the COVID-19 pandemic being carried out.
It is uncertain whether the upward trend in marriages will continue in the future. By quarter, the number of marriages rebounded by 2.8% year-on-year from the third quarter of 2022 and maintained an increasing trend until the second quarter of last year, but in the third quarter of the same year, it decreased by 8.2% (3,707 cases) and in the fourth quarter by 5.5% (2,907 cases).
The decline in the number of marriages appears to be influenced by a 'change in perception about marriage.' According to the Statistics Korea social survey, the proportion of the population aged 13 and over who responded that 'marriage is a must' decreased from 20.3% in 2012 to 15.3% in 2022.
The proportion who responded that 'marriage is good' also decreased from 42.4% to 34.8%, indicating a decline in positive perceptions of marriage. During the same period, the proportion who responded that 'marriage is optional' increased from 33.6% to 43.2%.
Economic reasons also contribute to hesitation about marriage. Regarding reasons for not marrying, in 2022, 32.7% of people in their 20s, 33.7% in their 30s, and 23.8% in their 40s cited 'lack of marriage funds such as wedding expenses and housing preparation.' Next, among people in their 20s (19.3%) and 40s (15.4%), 'not feeling the necessity of marriage' was common. People in their 30s cited 'not meeting a partner they want to marry' (14.2%) and 'not feeling the necessity of marriage' (14.2%) as the second reasons.
The number of births also decreases, hitting a record low...
There is also analysis that the decrease in the number of marriages affects the number of births. The number of births has been declining for eight years since it recorded 438,420 in 2015. The number of marriages began to decline from 2012, and four years later, the number of births also started to decrease.
The number of births dropped by 47.3% from 436,455 in 2013 to 230,000 last year. This is interpreted as a steeper decline than the number of marriages during the same period, influenced by 'DINK couples' (dual-income, no kids). The total fertility rate, which is the average number of children a woman is expected to have in her lifetime, hit a record low of 0.72 last year.
Statistics Korea predicted that the total fertility rate might fall further than initially expected due to the impact of the decline in marriages during the COVID-19 period. The projected total fertility rate for this year, according to Statistics Korea's future population projections, is 0.68 (based on the median scenario). Three out of ten cities, counties, and districts nationwide already had a total fertility rate below 0.7 last year. Birth rates were mainly low in urban areas.
Meanwhile, the total fertility rate in the fourth quarter of last year was recorded at 0.65. This is the first time it has fallen into the 0.6 range, marking the lowest ever recorded.
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