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Miles Yu (余茂春), known as a China strategist during the Donald Trump administration, predicted that the likelihood of China attacking Taiwan is low. The photo shows Xi Jinping, President of China. [Image source=Yonhap News]

Miles Yu (余茂春), known as a China strategist during the Donald Trump administration, predicted that China is unlikely to attack Taiwan. He analyzed that China would not take reckless actions considering the Chinese government's lack of military technology and capability, as well as the possibility of U.S. military intervention.

According to Taiwanese media such as Liberty Times and United Daily News on the 12th, Yu, head of the China Center at the conservative U.S. think tank Hudson Institute, stated this in an interview with Voice of America (VOA) broadcast on the 10th (local time).

Miles Yu was identified as a key figure behind the Trump administration’s continuous "tough stance on China" strategy. At that time, he served as the chief China policy advisor to U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and was known as a leading "hardliner" who led pressure policies against China.

Yu analyzed that if Chinese President Xi Jinping pragmatically considers costs, opportunities, and capabilities, the likelihood of attacking Taiwan for forced unification through military means is low. He argued that China’s lack of military technology and capability in amphibious operations makes an invasion of Taiwan still difficult.

Regarding the most important reason why President Xi would not launch an invasion of Taiwan, Yu claimed, "Not only can President Xi not create such an opportunity, but the free world led by the United States would reject such an opportunity." Yu argued that even if Xi has strong ambitions for invasion, considering the costs of military intervention through the Taiwan Relations Act?a domestic law enacted to replace the U.S.-Taiwan mutual defense treaty?and various executive orders, "he does not have the courage to take such a great risk."

Nevertheless, Yu expressed concerns by mentioning the aggressiveness of the Chinese regime. He explained that China is already planning to expand military bases and deploy military forces worldwide, and is also moving based on a global strategy to control critical resources and supply chains. He pointed out that amid ongoing territorial disputes with India, Vietnam, the Philippines, Japan, and others, President Xi could use Taiwan as the starting point for the next total war (full-scale war).

Miles Yu visited Taiwan last month as part of a delegation from his research institute and gave the VOA interview before leaving Taiwan earlier this month, according to Liberty Times.

Meanwhile, Chinese-language media such as Hong Kong’s Hong Kong 01 and Chengdu Daily reported on the 11th that Cui Tiankai (崔天凱), former Chinese ambassador to the U.S., stated at the "Asia Focus: 2024" seminar hosted by the Asia Society Policy Institute (ASPI) on the 25th of last month that China will achieve unification in a way that best serves the interests of Chinese people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait (China and Taiwan). According to the report, former Ambassador Cui emphasized, "We will not fall into the trap of a Taiwan Strait war that some people have set for us."