900 Ballistic Missiles Forecasted to Turn Seoul into a "Fire Sea" Deployed at the Frontline [North Korea Missile Development History]

North Deploys Missiles Forward by Range
Estimated to Possess Around 900 Ballistic Missiles

North Korea's missile development began around the time of the Korean War. The starting point was the establishment of the defense science research institution called the ‘Precision Research Institute’ in 1952. In 1955, a nuclear physics research institute was also established to develop nuclear weapons. The problem was technological capability. North Korea had to rely on the Soviet Union, Iran, China, and others for assistance.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

The history of North Korea's missile development can be broadly divided into four phases: the introduction period (late 1960s to mid-1970s), the imitation production period (mid-1970s to early 1980s), the independent production period (early 1980s to mid-1990s), and the performance improvement period (mid-1990s onward). From the introduction period, North Korea received help from the former Soviet Union. They introduced and deployed short-range guided weapons of the Free Rocket Over Ground (FROG) series. During the imitation production period, North Korea participated in missile joint projects with China. Thanks to this, they secured independent production capabilities through imitation production of the Scud-B missile. From this time, North Korea began producing missiles independently, increasing both range and quantity. They also established an organization. In July 1999, Kim Jong-il founded the Strategic Rocket Forces, which oversees the operation of missile forces. Later, Chairman Kim Jong-un strengthened the Strategic Rocket Forces into a powerful military branch equipped with miniaturized and precision nuclear strike capabilities.

◆ North Korea’s missile naming system differs from that of South Korea and the U.S. = In the early days, South Korea and the U.S. named North Korean missiles based on the locations where the missiles were first discovered. For example, missiles found in Nodong-ri, Hamju County, North Hamgyong Province were called ‘Nodong missiles,’ and those found in Daepodong, Hwadae County, North Hamgyong Province were called ‘Daepodong missiles.’ As the number of missile types increased according to range, South Korea and the U.S. assigned the code ‘KN,’ an abbreviation for ‘North Korea.’ This explains why the same missile is referred to differently by South Korea and the U.S. compared to North Korea. For instance, the missile called KN-03 by South Korea and the U.S. is called the Nodong missile by North Korea.

South Korea and the U.S. also conveniently divide the currently deployed North Korean missile deployment lines into three belts. The 1st belt is located 50 to 90 km north of the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ). Scud brigades are stationed here. About 400 Scud missiles, which can strike all of South Korea, are currently deployed. The 2nd belt is established 90 to 120 km north of the DMZ and is managed by the Nodong missile brigades. More than 300 Nodong missiles with a range of 1,200 km are deployed here, which means they can strike U.S. forces stationed in Japan. The 3rd belt is the rear area based on Cheolsan in North Pyongan Province, Geomdeok Mountain in South Hamgyong Province, and Junggang in Jagang Province. Located 175 km north of the DMZ, this area is estimated to have 30 to 50 Musudan missiles deployed.

◆ Means to evade surveillance = According to a joint report by South Korean and U.S. military authorities, attention should be paid more to North Korea’s Transporter Erector Launchers (TELs) than to the missiles themselves. TELs are considered more threatening because they are not restricted by time or location compared to fixed missile bases. South Korean and U.S. military authorities estimate that North Korea possesses up to about 900 ballistic missiles, including a maximum of approximately 440 Scud missiles.

North Korea possesses 108 Transporter Erector Launchers (TELs). By missile type, the number of Scud missiles and TELs capable of carrying Scud missiles is the highest. The number of Scud missiles is estimated at up to about 430 (with 36 TELs). Following are 27 Musudan missiles (27 TELs), over 330 Nodong missiles (27 TELs), about 100 KN-02 missiles (12 TELs), and a total of 12 KN-08 and KN-14 missiles (6 TELs).