Amid External Allegations... China Declares "Zero Tolerance for Statistical Manipulation Disciplinary Actions"

"Manipulation is the Worst Statistical Corruption... Emphasizing Government Credibility Damage"
External Doubts on Economic Growth Rate and Youth Unemployment Statistics

The Chinese government has launched a crackdown on statistical manipulation and announced that it will discipline cases caught under a zero-tolerance policy. This move is interpreted as a response to external doubts about last year's economic growth rate and youth (ages 16-24) unemployment rate figures recently released.

China's National Bureau of Statistics stated on the 22nd, "We will thoroughly investigate and handle violations of discipline and laws in the field of statistics," adding, "According to the revised Chinese Communist Party regulations, zero-tolerance punishment will be enforced." It further pointed out, "Manipulation is the worst form of statistical corruption," and "It seriously affects the quality of statistical data and obstructs or misleads macro decision-making." It also emphasized, "It is not only a violation of the Chinese Communist Party's professional ethics but also damages the credibility of the Party and the government."

The Central Committee of the Communist Party had earlier announced revised disciplinary regulations in December last year, adding statistical manipulation (statistical fraud) to violations of Party discipline and stressing that "all localities and departments must faithfully implement the regulations." According to the publicly released regulations at that time, individuals directly involved in or primarily responsible for statistical manipulation may receive warnings or be expelled from the Party depending on the severity of the case.

The National Bureau of Statistics emphasized, "We will strictly investigate and handle statistical manipulation, especially interference by officials in statistical work or involvement of statisticians in manipulation, and firmly respond to each case," adding, "No fraud will be tolerated."

Ye Qing, former deputy director of the National Bureau of Statistics, told the Chinese state-run Global Times (GT), "Data from the central and local governments and enterprises must be accurate," adding, "Only genuine data can reflect the country's actual situation and help establish feasible macro policies." The former deputy director also said, "Accurate statistics are the foundation of scientific decision-making, and incorrect statistics negatively affect economic development and public welfare."

Although authorities have regularly conducted inspections of statistical misconduct, the recent announcement and crackdown have attracted more attention as they come amid rising external suspicions about China's official statistics.

Earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that China's gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate last year was 5.2%, but the Nihon Keizai Shimbun reported that nominal GDP actually decreased by 0.5% in dollar terms. Bloomberg also cited Logan Wright, director at the Rhodium Group, claiming that China's growth rate last year might have been around 1.5%.

Additionally, regarding the youth unemployment rate, which China resumed publishing after six months, there are criticisms that the statistical continuity is poor and that the figures diverge from reality. After reaching a record high of 21.3% in June last year, the National Bureau of Statistics temporarily suspended related data releases and changed the criteria by excluding students, publicly reporting a newly calculated unemployment rate of 14.9% in December of the same year.