[The World on the Page] The End of Silicon Computers and the Dawn of the 'Quantum Era'

Kaku Predicts the Limits of Silicon Semiconductors in "The Future of Quantum Computing"
Quantum Computers Utilizing Atoms
Can Solve Problems in 200 Seconds
That Take Supercomputers 10,000 Years
Revolutionary Technology to Change Humanity's Future

We currently live in the Silicon Age. We inhabit a world of computers that perform complex calculations by integrating countless silicon transistors into microchips no larger than a fingernail. Since the transistor was introduced in 1947, companies and countries that invested in computer technology have prospered. Individuals have benefited as well. The immense wealth of Silicon Valley symbolizes this. South Korea became a developed country by riding the wave of the Silicon Age. We have lived in an era where the growth of semiconductor companies like Samsung Electronics directly contributed to national wealth.

However, in "The Future of Quantum Computing" (Kim Young-sa), Michio Kaku, a professor at the City University of New York, states that the Silicon Age is coming to an end. The computational power of silicon computers is approaching fundamental limits. As is well known, the law governing the Silicon Age is Moore's Law. Predicted by Intel founder Gordon Moore, it states that the number of transistors on a semiconductor doubles approximately every 18 months. The result is the smartphone. A phone the size of a palm now performs more powerful functions than the U.S. Department of Defense computers during the Cold War and can capture images more vivid than those filmed by George Lucas when making "Star Wars."

However, Moore's Law, which has held true for nearly 60 years, is now breaking down. The pace of technological advancement is slowing, extending Moore's cycle, and it is expected to plateau soon. This is due to the physical limits of semiconductor size. The thinnest layer of current silicon semiconductors is only a few nanometers thick. Since a single atom is about 0.1 nm, the size has shrunk as much as physically possible. The problem is that as the size approaches that of atoms, quantum effects, namely the uncertainty principle, dominate and cannot be controlled with current technology. Electrons move unpredictably, potentially damaging circuits or generating excessive heat that can melt chips. Modern civilization relies almost entirely on computing power. If Moore's Law collapses, it will lead to growth limits and plunge civilization into a long-term stagnation. Humanity would return to the slow development era experienced from the Neolithic Agricultural Revolution 10,000 years ago to the Industrial Revolution in the 18th century. If the Silicon Age ends, the South Korean economy, which has benefited from it, will also face a crisis. Just as cities like Detroit, which prospered alongside the U.S. automobile industry, turned into the Rust Belt after being outpaced by Japan and South Korea, the disappearance of technological gaps could allow countries like China to rapidly surpass us.

Kaku says quantum computers are revolutionary technology that will fundamentally change humanity's future. By directly utilizing atoms themselves to build computers, they open a horizon that transcends the physical limits of silicon semiconductors. Moreover, these computers perform all calculations at the atomic scale, the smallest objects in the world, overwhelmingly surpassing the performance of existing computers. Furthermore, by harnessing quantum world laws such as superposition and entanglement, they can accurately compute phenomena that silicon computers cannot, such as biological processes and climate prediction. Google claimed, "When quantum computers arrive, the world's currently most advanced computers will look like abacuses."

Quantum computers, long discussed theoretically in the labs of a few scholars, have recently begun to attract widespread attention. Changes are occurring, such as skyrocketing stock prices of related companies. A major milestone was Google's unveiling of its self-developed quantum computer in 2019. Google claimed this computer could solve a problem that would take a supercomputer 10,000 years in just 200 seconds. Although still at the laboratory level, the "ultimate computer" has appeared in reality. In 2021, IBM also introduced a new quantum computer, igniting competition toward the future.

Quantum computers shake the world created by existing silicon computers to its roots. For example, quantum computers can neutralize all current security codes used in administrative management, military secrets, and financial transactions, and can even hack blockchains, potentially destroying the cryptocurrency market itself. Personal information could be leaked, bank funds arbitrarily withdrawn, and weapons like missiles used in terrorism, plunging the Earth’s civilization built on silicon computers into extreme chaos.

Not all consequences are negative. The revolutionary computational power of quantum computers can solve countless problems that were previously unsolvable. Especially when combined with artificial intelligence technology, their power is unimaginable. The learning speed of AI will increase exponentially, causing upheavals in all fields. For example, despite nearly 20 years of enormous tax expenditures, we still do not know a clear solution to the low birthrate problem. With quantum computers, we could use accumulated data to discover the exact causes and find optimal solutions.

Quantum computers are machines that simulate the future almost as accurately as reality. Using these computers, we can depict the long-term impacts of global warming on national economies and individual lives, find solutions such as next-generation batteries, develop new drugs to treat incurable diseases like cancer through virtual laboratories, and conduct precise nuclear fusion experiments that replicate the sun inside a container, providing permanent solutions to energy problems. Quantum computers are technologies that transcend the limits of current civilization. We can use them to achieve many things that were previously impossible. For this reason, the U.S., China, and Europe are pouring massive funds into quantum computer development, with companies like Google, IBM, Intel, and Microsoft joining the race. To secure a lead in quantum computing, China has already invested $10 billion in the National Quantum Information Science Research Institute, and in 2021, the U.S. pledged a total of $625 million in support.

Once the quantum era opens, Silicon Valley will fall into a new Rust Belt, and companies or countries left behind may become perpetual runners-up. National interest is needed to continue the prosperity of the Silicon Age. "We lagged in industrialization, but let's lead in informatization!" was the slogan we shouted 30 years ago at the dawn of the internet. It's time to change it. "We lagged in semiconductors, but let's lead in quantum technology!"

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