[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] North Korea Likely to Launch Additional Missiles

"Hypersonic Solid-Fuel IRBM Test Launch"
Applying Maneuvering Flight to Medium-Long Range Ballistic Missiles
Range Directly Targets US Military Bases in Guam and Alaska

North Korea announced on the 15th that the missile it launched the previous day was a hypersonic intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM). Military authorities also analyzed that the missile's speed exceeded Mach 10, concluding it to be a hypersonic IRBM.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

On the 15th, a military official stated, "Considering the speed of the missile launched by North Korea, it appears to be a hypersonic missile, and to improve flight stability, additional test launches are expected soon."

The most notable aspect of this launch is the use of solid fuel. This is the fourth hypersonic missile test launch by North Korea following those in September 2021 and January 5 and 11, 2022. However, this is the first hypersonic IRBM test launch using solid fuel. North Korea announced in November 2022 that it developed a high-power solid-fuel engine for IRBMs and succeeded in ground static tests of the first and second-stage engines. Unlike liquid-fueled missiles, which require fueling before launch, solid-fueled ballistic missiles do not need a fueling stage, enabling surprise attacks.

Solid Fuel Enables Surprise Launches

IRBMs generally refer to ballistic missiles with a range of 3,000 to 5,500 km. If this is a new IRBM, it could strike two U.S. military bases within range: about 3,500 km in a straight line from Pyongyang to Guam, and about 6,000 km to Alaska. Guam hosts U.S. strategic assets such as B-52 bombers, and Alaska has ground-based intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) interception systems.

North Korea is believed to have developed the new IRBM by modifying the engine used for the solid-fueled ICBM 'Hwasong-18.' Hypersonic missile technology was also applied. Flying at speeds exceeding Mach 10, it is difficult to intercept. Even at Mach 5, it can reach Seoul from Pyongyang in just over a minute.

To evade interceptor missiles, it also performs maneuvering turns. The Missile General Bureau claimed, "The hypersonic glide warhead separated from the missile executed strong 240 km maneuvering turns and hit a designated target within a 1,000 km range." Unlike conventional ballistic missiles, it performs high-speed erratic maneuvers at low altitudes within 50 km, making it a weapon system that can disrupt and neutralize South Korea's missile defense systems. The range has also been extended. In 2022, North Korea announced the successful test launch of a cone-shaped missile, claiming it hit a target 700 km away with no error; this time, the range has been increased to 1,000 km.

Maneuvering Turns Effectively Neutralize ROK-US Interceptor Systems

North Korea has also announced additional launches. Calling the previous day's missile launch a 'test launch' indicates an intention to launch again. Shin Jong-woo, Secretary-General of the Korea Defense and Security Forum, analyzed, "This appears to be a test launch aimed at enhancing surprise attack capability by changing the first-stage propulsion of the hypersonic missile to solid fuel. To evade ROK-US interceptor systems, it must maintain speeds exceeding Mach 10, so additional launches are expected."