The Biggest Variable in This General Election... Success Conditions for the 'Third Zone'

① Can They Unite and Ally as a Single Group?
② Can Additional Members Join to Secure Number 3?
③ Is It Possible to Find Consensus on Policies?

With lawmakers Kim Jong-min, Lee Won-wook, and Cho Eung-cheon leaving the Democratic Party of Korea following the 'Principles and Common Sense' group, and former leader Lee Nak-yeon also departing, the space for a third political bloc is expanding. Political circles are anticipating the possibility of further defections, making the third bloc's 'storm' a major variable in the upcoming general election. We examined the conditions for the third bloc's success.

First, it depends on whether a new party, which encompasses a wide spectrum from conservative to progressive and has begun to develop vested interests during its formation, can achieve a chemical and organic union. If the merger process degenerates into a battle over shares, expectations for the new party could vanish instantly. On the 11th, Representative Cho Eung-cheon appeared on CBS Radio and said, "To give voters confidence that voting for the third bloc will not be a wasted vote, we must unite under candidate number 3. This presupposes a merger."

Former People Power Party leader Lee Jun-seok (from right), Yang Hyang-ja, leader of Hope of Korea, former Democratic Party leader Lee Nak-yeon, and Geum Tae-seop, co-leader of New Choice, are performing the national ceremony at Yang's book launch event held at the National Assembly Members' Office Building on the 9th. Photo by Kim Hyun-min kimhyun81@

Cheon Ha-ram, the preparatory committee chairman of the Reform New Party, revealed during a broadcast break that he had a conversation with Representative Cho that day, and they agreed on the importance of "preparing to meet each other in the best possible condition" and that "the merger process should be made as transparent as possible to the public." In other words, each party must gather as much strength as possible to enable a merger.

Whether the third bloc can secure candidate number 3 is also a point of interest. Since the third bloc aims to break the dominance of the two major parties, securing candidate number 3 on election materials and ballots is urgent to demonstrate itself as an alternative force. Under current election law, candidate number 3 belongs to the Justice Party, which holds six seats. To claim candidate number 3, the third bloc needs at least seven incumbent lawmakers. Currently, among the lawmakers advocating the third bloc, there are four incumbents: three from 'Principles and Common Sense' and one, Yang Hyang-ja, the representative of 'Hope for Korea.' Additionally, Ryu Ho-jeong, active in 'New Choice,' is a proportional representative; if she leaves the Justice Party, she will lose her seat.

Regarding the number of seats, the third bloc is confident it will secure a certain minimum. Representative Cho mentioned, "There are some who feel guilty in their conscience," referring to politicians who sympathize with the cause of defection but have not yet taken political action. The Reform New Party, led by Lee Jun-seok, chairman of its policy committee, has also repeatedly mentioned the possibility of multiple incumbent lawmakers defecting.

Considering the potential additional joining of those who were excluded from nominations and subsequently left their parties, the third bloc is likely to meet the requirement of seven seats to claim candidate number 3. However, whether the third bloc can maintain public interest until after the mid-to-late next month’s nomination process, and how the public will react to nomination losers joining the new party, remain challenges for the third bloc party.

Issues will also be crucial. To attract public attention going forward, the third bloc must address impactful issues, but it remains to be seen whether a group with diverse ideological orientations can speak with one voice. Raising influential issues such as gender and labor while finding common ground among members with varied political orientations will likely be a dilemma for the third bloc in the future.