"Overall Failure of Biden Administration's Foreign Policy"
"Not Surprising if China Blocks Taiwan"
Renowned historian Niall Ferguson, a professor at Harvard University in the United States, has sparked controversy by predicting that Russia will win the war against Ukraine next year. He harshly criticized the Biden administration, stating that its overall foreign policy has failed and, as a result, former President Donald Trump will be elected in next year’s U.S. presidential election.
On the 27th (local time), Professor Ferguson said in an interview with the Spanish daily El Pa?s, "The U.S. did not expect Ukraine to hold out and was surprised when Ukraine defended Kyiv, only then supplying weapons. However, the support was neither enough to win nor enough to avoid losing," adding, "Ukraine is currently in a dangerous situation where Western support is decreasing and ammunition is running low." Given that Western support has already been late and insufficient, he predicts that Russia will ultimately win.
He strongly criticized the Biden administration’s foreign policy failures not only in Ukraine but also in major conflict zones such as the Middle East and Taiwan. Professor Ferguson said, "If future historians evaluate the Biden administration’s foreign policy, they will say it was very poor in terms of deterrence," and added, "Whether the U.S. can prevent China from blockading Taiwan remains to be seen, but it would not be surprising if it fails here as well."
He also predicted that amid the overall failure of such foreign policies, the Biden administration will lose the next election, and former President Trump will succeed in being re-elected. He reiterated his criticism of the Biden administration’s foreign policy failure, saying, "The Biden administration’s foreign policy has failed, which makes Trump look good."
He warned that Trump’s re-election could bring another security crisis to Europe. He said, "It is a misconception that Europe, which relies on the U.S. for security, can choose between the two superpowers (the U.S. and China)," emphasizing, "If Americans elect Trump and he withdraws from NATO, Europe will learn what ‘strategic autonomy’ really means." He continued, "If Ukraine is defeated, Europe will share a border with Russia, and without the U.S., it will require enormous funds. Europe must also develop the capability to arm itself."
Separately, Professor Ferguson also expressed a pessimistic outlook on the future impact of artificial intelligence (AI). He warned, "AI will not only eliminate white-collar office jobs but will have unintended consequences on human cognitive abilities," adding, "Large language models (LLMs) will destroy our ways of thinking. If children are not blocked from using LLMs, they will think through ChatGPT, and if that happens, we humans will not have a future as a species."
Meanwhile, Professor Ferguson is a world-renowned economic historian, famous for coining the term ‘Chimerica’ during the 2008 financial crisis to describe the economic symbiosis between the U.S. and China. He is also known as a revisionist scholar on imperialism and colonialism.
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