In the recent surge of support in the U.S. Republican presidential primary, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley showed stronger performance in a hypothetical one-on-one matchup against President Joe Biden compared to former President Donald Trump.
On the 25th (local time), according to an analysis of 508 recent polls by the congressional media outlet The Hill, former Ambassador Haley received 42.9% support in a one-on-one contest against President Biden, who is a leading Democratic presidential candidate, surpassing Biden’s 39.4% by 3.5 percentage points. This margin exceeds the gap in a one-on-one contest between leading Republican candidate former President Trump (45.3%) and President Biden (43.4%). This indicates that Haley’s general election competitiveness, supported by moderate conservatives, is higher than that of former President Trump.
President Biden (44.3%) trailed behind both former Ambassador Haley and former President Trump in their respective matchups, but maintained a 1.8 percentage point lead in a hypothetical contest against Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (42.6%), who was once considered a 'Trump challenger.'
These hypothetical one-on-one matchup results are particularly notable as the Republican Party is set to officially begin the presidential primary race starting with the Iowa caucuses on February 15. The New Hampshire primary is scheduled for the 23rd of the same month, followed by the South Carolina primary on February 3. Former President Trump leads his Republican rivals by a wide margin in these three states, but Haley is mounting a strong challenge in New Hampshire, where the moderate voter base is substantial.
According to the political analysis site FiveThirtyEight (538), as of this date, the aggregated average of various polls shows former President Trump’s support in New Hampshire at 44.1%, with former Ambassador Haley trailing at 25.7%, a single-digit gap of 9.4 percentage points. A poll conducted by the American Research Group from January 14 to 20 among 600 likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire showed the support gap between Trump (33%) and Haley (29%) narrowing to within the margin of error.
Former Ambassador Haley’s support has recently been rising sharply along with the consolidation of moderate voters. Politico previously reported that “moderates who dislike former President Trump and are dissatisfied with President Biden’s performance are supporting Haley,” and analyzed that “poll results show Haley as a stronger candidate than Trump in a contest against Biden.” Some polls even showed Haley leading President Biden by double digits. However, the outlet also noted that Haley faces an uphill battle to secure the Republican nomination, and if she fails to advance through the primaries, her potential will be irrelevant.
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