Kukgeum Center '2024 International Crude Oil Market Outlook' Report
International Oil Prices Expected to Follow a "Low-High-Low" Pattern
As the global crude oil supply and demand is expected to shift to a supply shortage next year, there is a forecast that upward pressure on international oil prices will increase.
The International Finance Center recently analyzed in its '2024 International Crude Oil Market Outlook' report that "due to demand growth outpacing production growth, a global crude oil supply shortage is expected."
According to the report, although OPEC+ will continue its production cut policy, non-OPEC+ countries such as the United States, Canada, and Brazil are expected to more than offset this, so global crude oil production is projected to continue increasing next year. Demand is also expected to show an overall healthy growth trend.
There is a significant divergence in price forecasts among institutions. Those forecasting low oil prices point to bearish factors leading the market, such as ▲accelerated slowdown in global growth ▲resumption of production competition among oil-producing countries ▲easing geopolitical tensions in Europe and the Middle East, expecting international oil prices to turn downward and possibly fall below this year's low point ($66) depending on circumstances. On the other hand, institutions forecasting high oil prices cite ▲possibility of escalation in the Middle East ▲recovery of risk appetite due to improved financial conditions ▲restocking of U.S. strategic petroleum reserves ▲visible effects of China's economic stimulus, expecting the supply shortage to widen compared to the baseline forecast and possibly surpass this year's high point ($94).
Oh Jeong-seok, senior fellow at the International Finance Center and author of the report, explained, "Next year, global supply and demand is expected to shift to a supply shortage for the first time in three years, driven by demand growth exceeding production growth," adding, "Prices will rise slightly compared to 2023." He further analyzed, "Considering forecasts from major institutions and market variables, a 'low oil price outlook' is expected to dominate in the first half of the year, while a 'high oil price outlook' will prevail in the second half."
Additionally, key points to watch next year include ▲possibility of OPEC+ withdrawing production cuts and resumption of production competition among oil-producing countries ▲risks to crude oil transportation networks in the Middle East ▲whether aggressive inflows of financial funds will occur.
© The Asia Business Daily(www.asiae.co.kr). All rights reserved.
