[Chatham House Roundtable] 'Han Dong-hoon' People Power Party VS 'Lee Jae-myung' Democratic Party, How Should We View It?

The People Power Party Has Room for Change, but the Democratic Party Has No Space to Change
Prospects for a New Party by Lee Jun-seok and Lee Nak-yeon Greatly Diverge
"Let's Choose a Sensible Figure, Not a Hardliner Politician"

Editor's NoteThe extreme confrontation between the two major camps has increasingly deepened the public's distrust and fatigue toward the political sphere. The 22nd general election, which will determine the future five years of the Republic of Korea, is just four months away. However, due to many variables, it is still difficult to predict where the voters' sentiments will head. There are concerns that this election might become a 'disliked general election' following the 'disliked presidential election.' On the 20th, Asia Economy held a 'Chatham House Roundtable' at the Asia Media Tower in Jung-gu, Seoul, to provide a comprehensive diagnosis of the political sphere, forecast the general election, and discuss whether the third-party new party movements could be an alternative for Korean politics. The Chatham House is a nickname for the Royal Institute of International Affairs (RIIA) in the UK, recognized as a top research institute in diplomacy and security. The roundtable included Kim Man-heum, former head of the National Assembly Legislative Research Office; Park Myung-ho, professor at Dongguk University; Bae Jong-chan, director of Insight K Research Institute; Yoo Chang-sun, political commentator; and Choi Byung-chun, former deputy director of the Democratic Research Institute (in alphabetical order). The roundtable followed the 'Chatham House Rule,' where the participants' names were disclosed, but their remarks were anonymized.

▶Moderator = So Jong-seop, Managing Editor of Political Society

The general election is just four months away. Please provide an overall diagnosis of the current political situation.

At the 'Chatham House Roundtable' held on the 20th of this month at the Asia Economy headquarters, participants are sharing their views on the outlook for next year's general election. From the left, Professor Park Myung-ho of Dongguk University, Director Bae Jong-chan of Insight K Research Institute, former Director Kim Man-heum of the National Assembly Legislative Research Office, political commentator Yoo Chang-sun, and former Deputy Director Choi Byung-chun of the Democratic Research Institute. Photo by Yoon Dong-joo doso7@

It is an extremely frustrating political situation. Neither the ruling nor the opposition parties have achieved any meaningful change or innovation; rather, their current states have only become more entrenched. In the case of the People Power Party, there are even talks about a 'Yongsan branch office.' The Democratic Party of Korea is increasingly solidifying into a 'Lee Jae-myung-only party' rather than undergoing change. Neither side is remotely sufficient to earn the public's trust.

It can be described as 'coexistence of poor-quality politics.' Fundamental leadership issues make discussion and debate on 'policy' impossible. We need to look at how (exclusive) 'Lee Jae-myung leadership' emerged in Korean politics and why the political sphere is becoming like a quasi-religious group from the perspective of 'leadership failure.' There have been several remarks that for the People Power Party to win the general election, a leadership change in President Yoon Suk-yeol's governance style is inevitable. However, President Yoon has not changed. In the minority ruling structure, Lee Jae-myung's problem has not only turned the Democratic Party into a 'bulletproof party' but also serves as a shield for President Yoon.

To conclude, electoral politics has regressed further. Data shows that the number of non-affiliated voters has increased compared to previous elections. The confrontation between camps is excessively clear. Either a new party should emerge, or new political forces within the same party, centered on first- and second-term lawmakers, should initiate electoral reform. However, such movements are becoming harder to see. Another problem is that the election, a national-level major event, is being portrayed as a 'person versus person' confrontation. This itself is highly regressive. The situation forces voters to choose only between 'Yoon Suk-yeol or Lee Jae-myung.' If this continues, a serious crisis will come to the Republic of Korea.

Former Director of the National Assembly Legislative Research Office, Kim Man-heum. Photo by Yoon Dong-joo doso7@

I think the failure of 'good politics' has already been confirmed. The adjective 'good' itself should probably be dropped from politics. The new parties moving in the third-party zone are noteworthy in terms of whether they can be a breakthrough or outlet for the current political situation. The new party's position will be somewhere between 'politics of complete public abandonment' and 'politics of public explosion.' However, realistically, it seems closer to abandonment than explosion. Still, there are over 100 days left. Ultimately, elections have the nature of public judgment. It is a stage where sensitivity to what the public wants is at its peak, so it is a time to hold onto some 'maybe' consolation.

The essence of politics is fighting. However, what one fights for is meaningful. Over the 70 years since liberation, Korean society has undergone four stages of development: 'nation-building,' 'compressed industrialization,' 'compressed democratization,' and 'compressed welfare state,' reaching a certain level among advanced countries. Current Korean politics seems to be facing a crisis of a 'mission gap' after achieving these significant goals. Even ten years ago, although the ruling and opposition parties fought fiercely, there were policies and justifications. Now, they fight just for positions. In the absence of national missions, the two extreme characters, Yoon Suk-yeol and Lee Jae-myung, hold real power in the two major camps and increase the 'public annoyance level.' It is not necessarily bad that the political sphere is undergoing a serious crisis. The core competent groups in the two camps need to feel a sense of crisis that 'we cannot continue like this.'

You seem generally critical of the current political situation. How do you see the overall flow of the general election?

At the 'Chatham House Roundtable' held on the 20th of this month at the Asia Economy headquarters, participants are sharing their opinions on the outlook for next year's general election. From the second person on the left: Bae Jong-chan, Director of Insight K Research Institute; Kim Man-heum, former Director of the National Assembly Legislative Research Office; Yoo Chang-sun, political commentator; Park Myung-ho, professor at Dongguk University; Choi Byung-chun, former Deputy Director of the Democratic Research Institute. Photo by Yoon Dong-joo doso7@

It is difficult to predict whether President Yoon Suk-yeol will change during the general election phase, but the People Power Party still has some room to 'dress up' through the launch of the 'Han Dong-hoon Emergency Committee' or talent recruitment. On the other hand, the Democratic Party still tries to solve everything by attacking Yoon Suk-yeol. The so-called 'Gaeddal' (dog daughters) hardline supporters were once a minority problem. However, recently, seeing Democratic Party lawmakers bombarding the 'Lee Nak-yeon new party' and circulating joint petitions, it looks like even incumbents have become the 'Gaeddal unit' ahead of nominations. The People Power Party has room to change despite President Yoon's leadership issues, but the Democratic Party has no space to change while keeping Lee Jae-myung's leadership. That is the difference between the two parties.

The People Power Party can be seen as having opened the door to change first. The departure of Representative Kim Ki-hyun, Assemblyman Jang Je-won, and the 'Kim-Jang alliance' is a very symbolic signal. However, the idea of trying to overturn the election by relying on a specific figure like 'Han Dong-hoon,' as if the regime was won solely by 'Yoon Suk-yeol,' is a fundamental limitation of the People Power Party. The Democratic Party's possibility for change is even more blocked and sealed. Lee Jae-myung has positioned himself not as a 'leader who leads change' but as a 'leader who protects vested interests.' As the general election approaches, instead of letting go, he is concentrating on solidifying the party as 'Lee Jae-myung's personal party,' which is bewildering. For example, the near-isolation strategy against former Representative Lee Nak-yeon is very irrational. When the fire is on the doorstep, there will be a competition for reform, so the outcome will likely be decided in the last month or two.

Professor Myungho Park, Dongguk University. Photo by Dongju Yoon doso7@

Since there are over 100 days left, it is hard to make a premature judgment. As mentioned earlier, the 'mission gap' expression reflects that political common sense is changing a lot. It is questionable whether both parties really intend to win the general election. The People Power Party must secure more than 40 seats in the metropolitan area to compete for the largest party in the National Assembly; otherwise, it might prefer to become a 'Yeongnam party' focusing only on a small core. The Democratic Party is basically in a favorable position but is overly optimistic. The closest turning point will be around the nomination period. How much reform and integration occur during the nomination process is crucial. Currently, the People Power Party is in a disadvantageous position but has more means, resources, and time to change than the Democratic Party. The Democratic Party is overly optimistic despite the imminent and unpredictable issue of Lee Jae-myung's political survival.

To add about nominations, the People Power Party currently holds about 110 seats. The Democratic Party, including the pro-democracy coalition, holds nearly 180 seats. Ultimately, incumbents must be removed. A group of prospective candidates is forming around the pro-Lee Jae-myung faction's off-parliamentary group, the Democratic Innovation Council, including former special aides to Lee Jae-myung. When they appear, the public might perceive that candidate nominations have worsened. On the other hand, the People Power Party has many vacancies, so there is space to introduce new people.

Jongchan Bae, Director of Insight K Research Institute. Photo by Dongju Yoon doso7@

Structurally, the People Power Party is favored in next year's general election. The Democratic Party's biggest victories were in the 2017 presidential election, 2018 local elections, and 2020 general election. Coincidentally, these were elections with the highest voter turnout in the past 20 years. However, voter turnout is likely to drop in next year's general election, so the conservative camp is structurally advantaged. Moreover, unlike the presidential election, seats are divided in the general election. Daegu-Gyeongbuk has 25 seats, Busan-Ulsan-Gyeongnam has 40 seats, while Honam has only 28 seats. The Democratic Party has only secured a majority in past general elections when it won over 70% of seats in the metropolitan and Chungcheong regions. If the People Power Party fails to secure more than 40 seats in the metropolitan area, it will be difficult to become the largest party. The Democratic Party must secure about 80 of the 121 metropolitan seats to win, roughly 65%, which is the 'magic number.' However, President Yoon is a disadvantageous variable for the ruling party due to his unpredictable actions under traditional political norms. For example, the controversy over relocating General Hong Beom-do's statue was hard to understand even for the far-right camp. Inviting conglomerate heads to eat tteokbokki in the market also did not fit traditional conservative norms.

Data shows that the general election structure is different from before. Elections held in the mid-term of a president's term tend to have a strong 'regime judgment' character. However, party approval ratings sometimes show the People Power Party higher. If asked who is immediately favored, it would be the Democratic Party. But looking ahead, the People Power Party, which has many new 'cards,' is more advantageous than the Democratic Party, which has no alternative besides Lee Jae-myung. Conservative supporters have high expectations for Han Dong-hoon, meaning they have motivation to support him. On the other hand, if Lee Jae-myung's judicial risks materialize, the Democratic Party has no alternative cards. Voters are fed up with the existing activist generation to the extent that the '86 purge theory' has emerged.

Let's talk about new parties. Following Representative Yang Hyang-ja's 'Hope of Korea,' former Representative Geum Tae-seop's 'New Choice,' and the new parties of Lee Jun-seok and Lee Nak-yeon, third-party movements have begun. Please provide a realistic assessment of whether these new parties will actually emerge and their potential impact.

At the 'Chatham House Roundtable' held on the 20th of this month at the Asia Economy headquarters, participants are sharing their views on the outlook for next year's general election. From the left, Professor Park Myung-ho of Dongguk University, Director Bae Jong-chan of Insight K Research Institute, former Director Kim Man-heum of the National Assembly Legislative Research Office, political commentator Yoo Chang-sun, and former Deputy Director Choi Byung-chun of the Democratic Research Institute. Photo by Yoon Dong-joo doso7@

The new party led by former People Power Party leader Lee Jun-seok has the character of Korea's first 'generation-based' political party. The 20s and 30s generation sees the 60s, 70s, and 80s generation supporting conservatives and the 40s and 50s generation forming the progressive camp as 'alien groups.' Their eras and cultures are different. If the former is called 'Cold War right-wing,' the latter has a worldview that fought authoritarianism, the 'Cold War left-wing.' The 20s and 30s non-affiliated voters who dislike both sides have a niche that Lee Jun-seok's new party can enter. However, the possibility of becoming a 'negotiation group' in the National Assembly, which is the success criterion for new parties, is almost none. In a situation where the two major parties are closely matched, if Lee Jun-seok's new party holds the 'casting vote,' it might secure 5 to 15 seats. Former Representative Lee Nak-yeon's new party has little political significance. Unlike his usually serious style, he suddenly launched a new party. However, there is no atmosphere of support even in the Honam region. The 'negotiation tool' aspect is too obvious, so it lacks momentum.

There is a possibility as an 'alternative' to political failure. Especially, Lee Jun-seok's new party inevitably attracts attention. It could become a new political model of 'anti-Yoon and anti-Lee' or 'non-Yoon and non-Lee.' Two points are noteworthy. First, it calls itself a 'digital party,' showing a very new party operation that Korean parties have not tried. Huge tax money is invested in party subsidies. Pointing out that this money is being used in places it shouldn't be can show politics that eliminates the gap voters feel. Second, the agenda and issue-raising through the new party can have explosive power. It will have considerable appeal to voters disappointed with the two major camps as an alternative to Yoon Suk-yeol and Lee Jae-myung. It is no exaggeration to say that Lee Nak-yeon's new party has already failed.

In terms of direction, the most desirable is 'New Choice,' led by former Representative Geum Tae-seop. I positively view the direction of a third-party new party beyond the existing ruling and opposition parties. However, it is currently the weakest force. Incumbent lawmakers must join. Realistically, it is difficult to expect independent progress in the general election. Lee Jun-seok's new party has only a few days left until the deadline he set (the 27th), and it is uncertain whether he will really leave the party. Even if he forms a new party, it is likely to be a 'tempest in a teacup.' If the People Power Party stirs a reform wind with Han Dong-hoon as the emergency committee chairman, Lee Jun-seok's new party may not become a major variable in the general election. Lee Nak-yeon's new party is also difficult. The People's Party's progress in the 20th general election was because it swept Honam seats. It is questionable whether Lee Nak-yeon's new party can gain such momentum. However, due to the anti-Lee faction or nomination issues, a 'destined new party movement' may arise within the Democratic Party. If the third-party forces such as New Choice, Hope of Korea, and Lee Jun-seok's new party unite, there is a possibility of becoming a variable in the general election.

Political commentator Yuchangseon. Photo by Dongju Yoon doso7@

Lee Jun-seok's new party has the great advantage of focusing on the future generation. If successful, it is a very good asset considering the next presidential election. However, Lee Jun-seok's continued irritating impression in front of the public does not match the future generation's image. He needs to show a different expression from the old generation. This is something he must fix going forward. Han Dong-hoon as the emergency committee chairman is also a variable. If Kim Ki-hyun's leadership had continued, the new generation and Lee Jun-seok's supporters would have been intact. But under Han Dong-hoon's leadership, there is overlap. Lee Nak-yeon's new party lacks appeal. It aims to restore the Democratic Party's tradition instead of Lee Jae-myung's leadership, but it is too status quo to be considered a challenger. However, variables remain, such as the concretization of Lee Jae-myung's judicial risks and the non-mainstream faction's moves after nominations.

New parties will not work. The current political sphere is a confrontation between camps. Responses to new parties are reflexive choices, not voluntary ones. Even in opinion polls asking about Lee Jun-seok, Lee Nak-yeon, Cho Kuk's new parties, or even the imprisoned former Representative Song Young-gil's new party, there are answers indicating support. But these are reflexive actions because people dislike existing parties, not because of clear reasons. Rather, after the general election, the desire for new parties may burst like a flood. The Democratic Party will feel limits with Lee Jae-myung's leadership, and if the People Power Party's Han Dong-hoon emergency committee shows 'Yoonism' moves, demands for change will arise. Above all, as generations get younger, demands for politics are completely changing. The political landscape after next year's general election will inevitably see a surge in demands to move from personality-oriented party structures to 'systems.'

As the general election phase officially begins, there is public distrust in the two major party system, even expressions like 'poor-quality politics.' However, voters must choose someone. What do you think voters should use as their 'criteria for choice'?

At the 'Chatham House Roundtable' held on the 20th of this month at the Asia Economy headquarters, participants are sharing their views on the outlook for next year's general election. From the left, Bae Jong-chan, Director of Insight K Research Institute; Kim Man-heum, former Director of the National Assembly Legislative Research Office; Yoo Chang-sun, political commentator; Park Myung-ho, professor at Dongguk University; and Choi Byung-chun, former Deputy Director of the Democratic Research Institute. Photo by Yoon Dong-joo doso7@

I hope that the 'extremists' in each camp will be weeded out in the general election. Throughout the 21st National Assembly, extreme politics and extreme confrontations between camps have damaged our politics. I hope voters will weed out the hardline politicians in each party. Specifically, in the ruling party, those who only watch the president's eyes and blindly follow him. In the Democratic Party, there are hardline extremists backed by fandoms, symbolic groups like the 'Cheoreomhoe.' I hope voters choose more rational, balanced, and sensible candidates to enter the 22nd National Assembly by eliminating extremists.

Since there are politicians lining up for livelihood, it is another question whether all 'pro-Yoon' and 'pro-Lee' can be considered extremists. However, excluding excessive people is certainly meaningful. I want to add two points. First, party politics is still important on a large scale. However, recognition is needed for those who strive for 'integrative content.' If the previous speaker pointed out who should be excluded, I want to add that even if camps differ, we should recognize politicians who work for integration.

Choi Byung-cheon, former Vice President of the Democratic Research Institute. Photo by Yoon Dong-joo doso7@

Many voters cast votes based on ambiguous party support or vague ideological tendencies. I will give a clear criterion. Criminals should be excluded. Criminals should not become representatives of the people. First is drunk driving, second is tax evasion, third is plagiarism and fraud. I hope these people are excluded. It is very inappropriate for such people to become someone's representatives.

Without party democratization, electoral democracy cannot function properly. From that perspective, I want to point out to voters who have become 'hostages of parties.' (Current parties) have become 'interest cartels.' Voters do not need to be hostages of power groups. Rather than being hostages in the duopoly system of the two camps, I hope voters focus on individual candidates. Although Korea is not a parliamentary system, no other country attaches such special meaning to parties in elections as Korea does. I hope voters choose based on candidates.