'Approval Rating in the 10% Range' Japan's Kishida, Major Overhaul Including 4 Abe Faction Ministers

Aftermath of the 'Slush Fund Scandal'... Replaced by Non-Abe Faction
Kishida Dismisses 10 Abe Faction Members Including Ministers and Vice Ministers

Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, cornered by the Japanese Liberal Democratic Party's (LDP) political slush fund scandal, dismissed four ministers from the party's largest faction, the 'Abe faction,' and replaced them all with non-Abe faction members. Kishida's approval rating has fallen to the historic low of the 10% range, marking a major crisis for the administration, and with the prosecution's investigation set to intensify, there are concerns about a further decline in support.

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida
[Photo by Reuters]

Kishida Ousts Abe Faction... Appoints 'Kishida faction' Hayashi as Chief Cabinet Secretary

According to NHK and other media, Prime Minister Kishida appointed Yoshimasa Hayashi, a member of the LDP faction 'Kishida faction' which Kishida once led, as the new Chief Cabinet Secretary, the government's spokesperson and the second most important position in the Prime Minister's Office. Former Justice Minister Ken Saito, who is unaffiliated with any faction, was appointed Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry; Takeaki Matsumoto from the 'Aso faction' was appointed Minister for Internal Affairs and Communications; and Tetsushi Sakamoto from the 'Moriyama faction' was appointed Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries.

Earlier, four ministers belonging to the Abe faction, including Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno and Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Yasutoshi Nishimura, who are suspected of illegal slush fund activities, submitted their resignations to Prime Minister Kishida, prompting these changes.

New Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi is the leader of the 'Kishida faction,' which Kishida led until recently. He has served as Minister of Defense, Minister of State for Economic and Fiscal Policy, Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, and Minister of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, and served as Foreign Minister from November 2021 to September this year under the Kishida Cabinet. During this period, he was directly involved in discussions to improve Japan-South Korea relations.

Hayashi, who has been politically active in Yamaguchi Prefecture in western Honshu, the political stronghold of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, is said to have switched from the House of Councillors (upper house) to the House of Representatives (lower house) in 2021 with the prime ministership in mind. In Japan's parliamentary system, being a member of the House of Representatives is considered an essential prerequisite for becoming prime minister.

Hayashi Yoshimasa, the newly appointed Chief Cabinet Secretary
[Photo by AFP Yonhap News]

Although some evaluate that Hayashi's political influence and name recognition pose a threat to Prime Minister Kishida, Asahi Shimbun reported that Kishida's unusual decision to appoint a member of his own faction as Chief Cabinet Secretary was due to the lack of suitable candidates. Initially, former Defense Minister Yasukazu Hamada, an unaffiliated member, was considered for the Chief Cabinet Secretary position, but Hamada declined, leaving Hayashi as the only viable choice, Asahi added.

Asahi analyzed that "the complications in appointing the Chief Cabinet Secretary, a key cabinet position, could further weaken the prime minister's central authority." Yomiuri Shimbun also described Hayashi's appointment as a 'desperate measure,' forecasting that "as the administration becomes more 'Kishida-colored,' it remains unclear how much cooperation among factions will be achieved."

Prime Minister Kishida also replaced all five Abe faction members who served as vice ministers.

At the same time, among LDP executives, Koichi Hagiuda, chairman of the Policy Research Council and a member of the Abe faction, Tsuyoshi Takagi, LDP Diet Affairs Committee chairman, and Hiroshige Seko, LDP House of Councillors secretary-general, all submitted their resignations. The LDP executive reshuffle is expected to take place after the 22nd of this month.

Approval Rating in the 10% Range Signals 'Resignation Crisis'... Prosecution Investigation Intensifies

Japanese media have assessed that even if Prime Minister Kishida undertakes a large-scale purge of Abe faction members, since the Kishida faction is also implicated in the slush fund allegations, there will be limits to resolving the situation without fundamental solutions.

In particular, the Kishida Cabinet's approval rating has fallen below the 20% threshold considered a resignation crisis level, plunging into the 10% range for the first time. Jiji Press reported on the 12th that a public opinion poll conducted from the 8th to the 11th showed the Kishida Cabinet's approval rating dropped 4.2 percentage points from the previous month to 17.1%. This is the lowest since December 2012, when the LDP regained power from the Democratic Party. It is also the first time the cabinet's approval rating has fallen below 20% since September 2009, just before the Democratic Party government was formed, when the Aso Taro Cabinet recorded 13.4%.

The problem is that with the prosecution launching a full-scale investigation into the Abe faction's slush fund scandal, there is a possibility of further declines in approval ratings. The Tokyo District Public Prosecutors Office's Special Investigation Division has been investigating secretaries of Abe faction lawmakers suspected of violating the Political Funds Control Law, but with the temporary Diet session ending yesterday, it plans to directly investigate the lawmakers themselves.

Yomiuri reported, "Within the LDP, there is growing anxiety as the prosecution's investigation is expected to intensify," adding, "If the substance of the allegations is revealed, a further drop in the cabinet's approval rating is inevitable."