[General Election Compass] Ruling Party's Final Weapon Han Dong-hoon... Will He Capture the 'MZ Vote' and Shake Up the Election Scene?

Minister Han Dong-hoon Raises Expectations for Next Year's General Election Candidacy
Polls Show Growing Optimism Among 20s and 30s Generations

Editor's NoteOpinion polls are a barometer to gauge public sentiment. They reveal the flow of public opinion on everything from the president's governance to each party's platform and policies, as well as political and social issues. This is why the political world, where the 'power map' changes through elections, reacts emotionally to opinion poll indicators. [Election Compass] is a series that examines the flow of public opinion based on the weekly flood of opinion poll data ahead of next year's general election, helping readers understand the hidden public sentiment behind the numbers.

Justice Minister Han Dong-hoon’s candidacy for next year’s general election has become a hot topic in political circles. Although he was not included in the December 4 cabinet reshuffle, the political world is treating Minister Han’s political debut as a foregone conclusion. With his excellent oratory skills, political acumen, and sophisticated fashion sense, if Minister Han enters the election as a player, it is expected that President Yoon Seok-yeol could regain support among people in their 20s and 30s, where he has shown weakness.

According to the political circles on the 5th, an opinion poll conducted by Every C&R and released on the 28th of last month (commissioned by News Spirit, conducted via ARS from the 25th to 26th of last month, targeting 1,000 adults aged 18 and over nationwide; for details, refer to the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website) showed that when asked whether Minister Han’s candidacy in next year’s general election would help the People Power Party, 50.3% responded positively (36.5% said it would be very helpful + 13.8% said it would be somewhat helpful). On the other hand, 38.2% responded negatively (17.9% said it would not be very helpful + 20.3% said it would not be helpful at all).

What draws attention is the possibility that Minister Han could play a role in the public opinion landscape among people in their 20s and 30s, considered the key battlegrounds in next year’s general election. The approval rating for President Yoon’s governance is 18.8% among those in their 20s (aged 18 to 29), 30.2% among those in their 30s, and 19.3% among those in their 40s. Thanks to support from those in their 50s (34.7%) and 60s (52.9%), the overall approval rating remains in the mid-30s (34.4%). Meanwhile, Minister Han has formed positive public opinion not only among those in their 60s, where his support is particularly strong, but also among those in their 20s and 30s. Regarding Minister Han’s candidacy, 46.8% of people in their 20s, 51.3% in their 30s, 39.9% in their 40s, 45.9% in their 50s, and 60.4% in their 60s believe it would help the People Power Party in the general election. This suggests that Minister Han could have expansion potential among the 20s and 30s age groups, where President Yoon’s support is weak.

The same trend is confirmed in a poll by the public opinion research agency Gongjeong (commissioned by Dailyan, conducted via ARS from the 29th to 29th of last month, targeting 1,002 adults aged 18 and over nationwide). Regarding Minister Han’s candidacy for the general election, 43.8% of people in their 20s, 51.1% in their 30s, 50.2% in their 40s, 48.0% in their 50s, 55.3% in their 60s, and 61.7% aged 70 and above expressed support. Except for those aged 70 and above, the support is fairly even. In contrast, President Yoon’s approval ratings are low among those in their 20s (30.0%), 30s (32.9%), and 40s (30.5%), but show an upward trend among those in their 50s (48.2%), 60s (52.3%), and 70s (59.0%).

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Besides receiving favorable evaluations from younger generations, another strength of Minister Han is that he is the most certain next presidential candidate in the conservative camp. In Gallup’s ‘Future Political Leader’ preference survey, Minister Han ranks first among conservatives. Since the first survey conducted after the last presidential election (second week of June 2022), where he appeared for the first time at 4% ranking third among conservatives, he has maintained the top conservative candidate position in every subsequent survey. In the most recent poll (Gallup’s own survey conducted from the 7th to 9th of last month, targeting 1,001 adults aged 18 and over nationwide via telephone interviewer interviews), he maintained first place among conservatives with 14% support.

Choi Byung-cheon, director of the New Growth Economy Research Institute, said, "Minister Han’s greatest strengths are his smartness and the fact that he was born in 1973," adding, "Korea’s progressives and conservatives have often seemed stubborn, but Minister Han’s advantage lies in being ‘smart’ beyond such issues." Director Choi predicted, "In next year’s general election, Minister Han might run in districts where the People Power Party is slightly behind to boost the overall election atmosphere or serve as the general election campaign committee chairperson, leading media exposure and supporting the campaign."