Continuing 'Export Plus'... 5.6% Increase Expected Next Year

2.2%↑ from 1st to 20th This Month
Industrial Research Institute Forecasts '5.6% Export Increase and $26.5 Billion Trade Surplus'

Exports continued to increase until the 20th of this month. The government expects exports in November and December to record positive growth. The Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade (KIET) also forecasts that the export growth trend will continue next year.

According to the 'Export and Import Status from November 1 to 20' recently announced by the Korea Customs Service, export value reached $33.8 billion, up 2.2% compared to the same period last year. The number of working days during this period was 15.5, the same as last year. The average daily export value was $2.18 billion, also increasing by 2.2%.

Regarding major export items, semiconductors (2.4%), passenger cars (20.1%), and petroleum products (0.4%) increased compared to the same period last year, while automobile parts (-3.6%) decreased. By country, exports to the United States (15.7%), Vietnam (1.4%), and Japan (10.8%) increased, whereas exports to China (-2.4%) and the European Union (EU, -4.1%) decreased.

An official from the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy stated, "Considering the recent trend of exports concentrating at the end of the month, the positive export momentum continuing until the 20th of this month is expected to expand further until the end of the month, leading to a trade surplus turnaround and an increase in the export growth rate for the entire month." He added, "In particular, it is highly likely that semiconductor exports will turn positive for the first time in 16 months since August last year."

Supported by strong exports of ramen and gimbap, the export value of 'K-Food Plus'?which includes agricultural products and related industries such as intelligent farms (smart farms)?has continued its upward trend, reaching $10.48 billion by the third week of this month, a 1.2% increase from last year. Notably, agricultural product exports have maintained an increasing trend since turning positive compared to the previous year in the second week of September. By the third week of November, agricultural exports recorded $7.91 billion, a 1% increase from last year, poised to set a new record high this year as well.

The government expects exports to continue growing in November and December. The goal is to increase export value from $106.6 billion in November-December last year to $110 billion in the same period this year.

KIET projects that exports will increase by 5.6% next year compared to this year, with a trade surplus of $26.5 billion. Park Sung-geun, a research fellow at KIET, said, "Next year, the global economy is expected to experience limited growth due to persistent geopolitical uncertainties and inflationary pressures caused by deglobalization, leading major countries to maintain high interest rate policies. However, global trade is expected to rebound due to the base effect from this year's downturn." He added, "Exports are expected to increase by 5.6% year-on-year, supported by improvements in the semiconductor industry, steady export volumes of automobiles, the base effect from last year, and a gradual recovery in global trade."

On the 8th, when the government issued an additional work commencement order to the Cargo Solidarity Union, a truck was carrying a container and moving at the Uiwang IDC in Gyeonggi Province. / Uiwang = Photo by Kang Jin-hyung aymsdream@