[General Election Compass] Half of 20s and 30s Are Undecided Voters... Ruling and Opposition Parties' Vote-Grabbing Efforts Miss the Mark

Nearly Half of People in Their 20s Say "No Preferred Political Party"
Half of the Nonpartisan Voters Across All Age Groups Are in Their 20s and 30s
Political Circles' Attempts to Win Youth Votes Backfire

With the general election just four months away, a significant portion of people in their 20s and 30s have yet to decide on their preferred political party. This means that the voting intentions of the 20s and 30s generation will be a key variable determining the outcome in battleground areas such as the metropolitan region. Although the political sphere has introduced various strategies targeting the 20s and 30s vote, a breakthrough has yet to be found.

According to political circles on the 21st, a review of the recent monthly Korea Gallup regular survey results on party preference by generation shows that the proportion of non-affiliated voters among the 2030 generation was overwhelmingly high. In the most recent poll conducted in the third week of November (November 14-16, targeting 1,001 adults aged 18 and over, via telephone interviews; detailed information is available on the Central Election Survey Deliberation Commission website), the proportion of non-affiliated voters among those in their 20s (ages 18-29) and 30s was 48% and 34%, respectively. This is 7 to 21 percentage points higher than the 27% non-affiliated rate across all generations.

This trend has been consistently confirmed. In the second week of November survey, the non-affiliated rates for those in their 20s and 30s were 49% and 37%, respectively, and in the first week of November, 49% and 35%. In the fourth week of October, the rates were 51% and 40%, and in the third week of October, 46% and 42%, respectively.

Summarizing this, about the late 40% to early 50% of those in their 20s and the mid-30% to early 40% of those in their 30s are non-affiliated voters. This is overwhelmingly higher compared to other generations, where the non-affiliated rate appears in the mid-teens to low 20% range. Nearly half of all non-affiliated voters are from the 20s and 30s generation.

In Gallup's survey, 'non-affiliated' refers to those who answered 'none' or 'don't know/refused to answer' when asked about their preferred party, and even when asked again which party they lean towards, they continued to respond with 'none' or 'don't know/refused to answer.' A Gallup official explained, "While the aggregated non-affiliated rate appears as 25-30%, if only the first question is considered, 40-45% do not disclose party preference." This suggests that more than half of the 20s and 30s generation likely identified as non-affiliated when asked about their preferred party.

During the 2021 presidential election, the voter turnout was 77.1%, with the turnout for those in their 20s and 30s slightly exceeding 70%. If a similar voting pattern recurs in next year's general election, a significant portion of 20s and 30s voters who will participate in voting have yet to decide their voting intentions.

For this reason, the political sphere is actively targeting the 2030 vote. However, some evaluations suggest that they are making missteps (惡數, a bad move in games like Go that benefits the opponent).

In the case of the Democratic Party, a controversy arose over banners prepared for a youth-related campaign event. The banners contained phrases such as 'Naegae Ondang' (a pun meaning "The party that came to me"), 'I don't know about politics, but I want to live well,' 'I don't know about the economy, but I want to have a lot of money,' and 'You said you wanted to live alone, not just be alone,' which sparked criticism for belittling youth.

The Democratic Party introduced these as teaser banners for event promotion, but public opinion was cold. On the 20th, Cho Jung-sik, the Democratic Party Secretary-General, said, "Regardless of the planning intention, if the public and party members felt uncomfortable, this is clearly a mistake," adding, "It was the party's fault, not something to blame the company for, and as the Secretary-General overseeing party affairs, I apologize to the public and party members," bowing his head.

The People Power Party recently announced measures such as banning short selling. The fact that such measures were introduced without special circumstances like an economic crisis or stock market crash is seen as a move to appeal to the 2030 vote. This is considered a response to the strong dissatisfaction with short selling among the 20s and 30s generation, who have a high proportion of retail investors. However, there are comments that the effectiveness of measures like banning short selling is limited. From a capital market perspective, banning short selling moves away from global standards, and the effect on boosting stock prices is also limited.

The movement of a new party symbolized by former People Power Party leader Lee Jun-seok is also making the voting intentions more unpredictable. Lee, who has strong support among the 20s and 30s generation, may consolidate an independent force or join hands with another third force, potentially attracting votes from this generation.

Kim Bong-shin, director of Metavoice, said, "Considering the proportion of the 20s and 30s generation among non-affiliated voters, they will be the generation that determines the outcome of next year's general election," adding, "Established political forces need to consider how to approach this group, but so far, they have not shown genuine efforts." Kim emphasized, "There has been no fundamental effort to engage the 20s and 30s generation in politics," and stressed, "Instead of just playing the role of exchanging business cards among established politicians, a generational change is needed that helps the 20s and 30s generation participate in politics with their own achievements."