[Population Great Earthquake] The Golden Time for Low Birthrate, Only 10 Years Left

<In-depth Study on the Causes and Countermeasures of Low Birthrate>①
Sharp Decline in Population Aged 30-34 with High Fertility Rate in 10 Years
Even if Fertility Rate Rises After 2030, Births Will Decrease
"The Next 5 Years Are Crucial, Measures Must Accelerate"

‘Low Birthrate Golden Time’ D-10 Years.

A government report has issued a warning that the golden time to solve the ultra-low birthrate problem is just over 10 years away. Currently, the age group with the highest birthrate is in the 3 million range, but from 2030 onwards, it will decrease to the 2 million range, making it difficult to prevent a ‘population earthquake’ even with effective measures. To overcome low birthrate, it is pointed out that efforts must be made not only in labor, pension, and education reforms but also in improving the negative image of marriage and childbirth.

On the 9th, Asia Economy obtained the report titled ‘In-depth Causes and Countermeasures for Low Birthrate,’ which fully reflects the thoughts of government officials, academia, and the public on the low birthrate phenomenon. This report was prepared by Professor Choi Seul-gi’s team from the Graduate School of International Policy at the Korea Development Institute (KDI School) at the request of the Ministry of Health and Welfare. It is based on the presentations and discussions from the six sessions of the ‘Expert Forum for Establishing Population Policy Vision’ held in the second half of last year. The report also includes identified problems, policy proposals, and in-depth interviews with policy target groups.

Experts who participated in the forum analyzed that the golden time to solve the low birthrate issue is the next 10 years. This is because the population of the 30-34 age group, which currently has the highest birthrate, will remain in the 3 million range for the next decade. However, from 2034, the 30-34 age group will sharply decline to 2.86 million, and by 2040, it will shrink to 2.45 million. From that point on, even if the birthrate rises, the number of births will decrease, making it difficult to prevent population decline.

The core childbearing generation will also significantly decrease about 10 years from now. Currently, those born in the 1990s, the main childbearing age group, number about 600,000 to 700,000 annually. However, those born in the 2000s, who will enter the main childbearing age group in 10 years, number only about 400,000 annually. Even if the same low birthrate measures are implemented, the later they are applied, the more drastically their effectiveness will decline.

The golden time also coincides with the retirement period of the older generation. In Korea’s seniority-based labor market, wages increase as retirement approaches. Since the economic capacity of young people, such as income and assets, greatly affects childbirth, structural inequality could act as a negative factor. The inequality issue between the middle-aged generation currently receiving the most ‘lifetime employment + seniority-based’ benefits and the younger generation may ease as the population structure changes in 10 years, but short-term countermeasures are also needed for the inequality expected to occur over the next decade.

If low birthrate is not prevented within the golden time, Korea is likely to face a population earthquake starting in 10 years. The term ‘population earthquake’ was coined by Paul Wallace, a British writer and demographer. It is used to mean that the destructive power of population aging is much greater than that of an earthquake. Professor Choi Seul-gi said, “The golden time may actually be less than 10 years,” adding, “The next five years are crucial. If low birthrate measures are to be introduced, they must be implemented with urgency.”