[General Election Compass] Will Lee Jun-seok's New Party Shake Next Year's General Election?

Lee Jun-seok "Decision to Break Up, Countdown Started"
Strong Support for TK, 20s-30s, and Undecided Voters in Polls
New Party Launch Marks Major Turning Point in General Election Landscape

Editor's NoteOpinion polls are a barometer for gauging public sentiment. They reveal the flow of public opinion on everything from the president's governance to each party's platform and policies, as well as political and social issues. This is why the political world, where the 'power map' changes through elections, sometimes cries and sometimes laughs over poll indicators. [Election Compass] is a series that examines the flow of public opinion based on the weekly flood of poll data ahead of next year's general election, and reads the hidden public sentiment behind the numbers.

Former People Power Party (PPP) leader Lee Jun-seok has become the center of political realignment ahead of next year's general election. This follows Lee hinting at the possibility of leaving the PPP and forming a new party. In a recent media interview, Lee said, "The date for taking action if the situation does not improve has already been set," adding, "The more the ruling party and the government prove to the public that they are beyond rescue, the more that becomes a justification," delivering a kind of ultimatum. Could Lee's new party become a megaton bomb shaking the political world?

Former People Power Party leader Lee Jun-seok. Photo by Kim Hyun-min kimhyun81@

This can be inferred from a poll commissioned by New Daily to People Networks Research (PNR) on the 2nd. The survey assumed the formation of a new party by Lee and former lawmaker Yoo Seung-min (hereafter Lee-Yoo new party) and conducted a poll accordingly. According to the results, the Lee-Yoo new party would gain 21.1% support, making it the third-largest party by support rate. If the Lee-Yoo new party emerges, the PPP's support would drop from 38.7% to 32.2%, and the Democratic Party's support would decrease from 46.3% to 35.4%. Among the undecided voters (other parties + none + don't know), support fell from 13.1% before the split to 9.4%, a 3.7 percentage point decrease.

Looking not only at overall support but also at sub-samples (by region or age group), the Lee-Yoo new party showed strength in Daegu-Gyeongbuk (TK) and among people in their 20s and 30s. The Lee-Yoo new party recorded 30.1% support in TK, surpassing the PPP's 29.8%. Considering statistical errors, this confirms that Lee's influence remains significant in the PPP's core region in 2021. Lee himself explains the purpose of forming the new party as "an attempt to prevent the extinction of conservatism."

Moreover, demographically, the party received 36.8% support among people in their 30s, ranking first ahead of the Democratic Party (28.7%) and the PPP (27.7%). Among those in their 20s (including ages 18 and 19), it recorded 25.9% support, ranking second after the Democratic Party (40.7%). This suggests that Lee's political choices could lead his support base to change their party allegiance, symbolizing youth generation politics.

It could also be a viable option for voters who are disillusioned with the two-party system. Among respondents who said they would vote for a third force in the general election, 49.1% chose the Lee-Yoo new party.

Even considering the limitations of analyzing sub-samples in polls where sampling errors increase, Lee's new party could become a whirlwind of transformation in the political world.

If the Lee-Yoo new party, which emphasizes conservative tendencies, emerges, the PPP will be the first to face a crisis. In last year's presidential election, the PPP won by uniting conservative voters and the 20s and 30s age groups. However, depending on Lee's choice, a significant portion of the support base could defect.

Additionally, with the approval of the arrest warrant for Lee Jae-myung, leader of the Democratic Party, some non-mainstream Democratic lawmakers have already entered a 'psychological split,' and there is speculation about a 'big tent new party' possibility that includes lawmaker Yang Hyang-ja, who has already launched a third-zone new party, former lawmaker Geum Tae-seop, and even the progressive camp.

Kim Bong-shin, CEO of Metavoice and an expert in opinion polling, said, "I believe the Lee-Yoo new party will have influence," adding, "They might even consider running in so-called battleground constituencies." If the new party fields candidates in constituencies, PPP candidates in battleground areas such as the metropolitan area are expected to struggle due to the split in their support base. Regarding the Lee-Yoo new party's strong performance in TK, known as the conservative stronghold, Kim pointed out, "Inyo Han, the PPP Innovation Committee chairman, is advocating for senior Yeongnam politicians to run in the metropolitan area, which could be perceived as a slight against Yeongnam."