[Political X-File] There Is a Formula Behind the Independent Candidates' Surge in the General Election

(42) Independent Candidates as Key Variables Influencing General Election Results
25 Independent Candidates Elected in 2008 General Election
Reform Nomination? Managing Nomination Controversies is Crucial

Editor's Note‘Political X-File’ is a serialized project that delivers ‘unprecedented stories’ recorded in the election results and incidents of Korean politics.

On April 10 next year, the focus of the 22nd general election will be the seat competition among major political parties. The general election is now just five months away. The People Power Party and the Democratic Party of Korea are analyzing each other's election strategies and preparing tailored responses.

The issue goes beyond competition between the main parties; it is the ‘third variable.’ This factor, which amplifies the major parties' election concerns, is the independent candidate variable. Independents are candidates who run without party nominations.

In past general elections, independent candidates have joined the ranks of district winners to varying degrees. Most recently, in the 21st general election in 2020, five independent candidates were elected in Daegu, Incheon, Gangwon, Jeonbuk, and Gyeongnam.

The appearance of the National Assembly building. Photo by Dongju Yoon doso7@

Among the 253 district winners, five independents are not a negligible number, but they are not enough to shake the foundation of the ruling and opposition parties' seat acquisition strategies.

The problem arises when the number of independent winners exceeds double digits. Especially when independents continue to win in areas considered political strongholds of the ruling or opposition parties, the election scenario is shaken from the roots.

If a region expected to secure seats firmly suffers a blow, the political damage is even greater.

There is a political formula behind the independent candidate surge in general elections. It is rare for independents to suddenly cause an election storm. Most often, there is a preceding process that predicts the strength of independents.

The first formula of the independent surge ironically relates to the parties' ‘reform nominations.’ Both ruling and opposition parties claim reform as a justification to overhaul candidates every general election. They argue for breaking vested interests and injecting new blood.

However, seasoned political veterans who have experienced the ups and downs of real politics see through the essence. Reform projects with political justification start by signaling the departure of multi-term lawmakers.

It is not about being pushed out but about creating a political narrative that convinces voters that these lawmakers relinquished their vested interests for the country's future and the party's tomorrow. This is the basic political grammar when senior lawmakers pave the way for juniors.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

However, purges driven by political intentions differ. Excessive measures are employed. The pride of senior lawmakers is bruised. Nomination disputes intensify. When parachute candidates supported by influential figures in the central party arrive, and incumbent lawmakers controlling the organization show uncooperative attitudes, election campaigns become difficult.

Even in regions where a particular party is overwhelmingly strong, nomination turmoil can create the possibility of the candidate's defeat.

This was evident in the 18th general election in 2008. At that time, there were as many as 25 independent winners. The third party (Liberty Forward Party) won 14 district seats, but the number of independent lawmakers was twice that.

Interestingly, in Seoul, the political center with 48 districts, there was not a single independent winner. So where did all those independent lawmakers come from? They emerged in large numbers from the Yeongnam and Honam regions. At that time, the Grand National Party and the United Democratic Party suffered blows in their political strongholds.

Five independents were elected each in Busan and Gyeongbuk, and three and two in Jeonnam and Jeonbuk, respectively. Additional independents were elected in other Yeongnam and Honam areas. As a result, the Grand National Party had to witness 13 independents in Yeongnam, and the Democratic Party six in Honam. In a general election where every seat was precious, this was a painful scene for both major parties.

The background of the independent surge was nomination turmoil. The Grand National Party experienced intensified conflicts between pro-Park and pro-Lee factions, leading incumbent lawmakers to leave the party and run as independents. The Democratic Party also faced difficulties when incumbent lawmakers rebelled by running as independents after reform-driven purges in Honam.

Kim Ki-hyun, leader of the People Power Party, and In Yo-han, professor at Yonsei University College of Medicine, are conversing at the study group event "National Sympathy" held at the National Assembly on the 23rd. Photo by Kim Hyun-min kimhyun81@

Another formula for the independent surge is the blocking of re-election bids by incumbent lawmakers with strong local bases. Even if they intend to run, the central party suppresses them by force, preventing their nomination. The central party initially demands withdrawal or running in difficult districts, and if they do not comply, it delivers the ‘nomination rejection’ penalty.

The problem is that some incumbents with sufficient competitiveness do not yield to such pressure and run as independents. If the central party regrets the election results, it might nominate them later, but even if excluded until the end, they can still win as independents based on their own capabilities.

Recently, In Yo-han, the Innovation Committee Chair of the People Power Party, became the center of controversy with his interview remark, “The forces downstream of the Nakdong River within the party should step back.” The phrase ‘downstream of the Nakdong River’ is perceived as symbolizing the Yeongnam region, prompting sensitive reactions from ruling party lawmakers. It was interpreted as an intention to purge Yeongnam.

In Yo-han worked hard to manage the fallout from his remarks, but the controversy did not easily subside.

Among the multi-term lawmakers of the People Power Party in Yeongnam, several have strong competitiveness in their districts. If they consider running as independents, the party’s election concerns will inevitably grow. It is a political season where the ruling party leadership must carefully control nomination disputes in their political strongholds, leading to much contemplation.