KB Financial Management Research Institute predicted that this year's El Ni?o is likely to expand into a super El Ni?o. Consequently, the possibility of sugarflation and agflation has also been raised.
On the 18th, the institute released a report titled "El Ni?o Restarted, Heating Earth," diagnosing the ripple effects caused by the El Ni?o phenomenon. El Ni?o refers to the phenomenon where trade winds near the equatorial Pacific Ocean weaken, causing sea surface temperatures to rise. Recently, due to El Ni?o, the Earth's average temperature has reached an all-time high, accelerating the global warming crisis.
The report forecasted a high likelihood that this year's El Ni?o will expand into a super El Ni?o, predicting a rise in the prices of coffee beans and raw sugar. The increase in raw sugar prices is expected to lead to a rise in prices of sugar-containing foods such as bread, snacks, and beverages, resulting in 'sugarflation.'
Additionally, weather anomalies caused by El Ni?o can directly damage primary industries vulnerable to natural disasters, such as agriculture, livestock, and fisheries. If the typical El Ni?o characteristic of warm winters persists, the clothing industry may face difficulties due to sluggish sales of winter apparel and cold-weather gear.
The report also anticipated that during El Ni?o periods, global grain shipping volumes increase, benefiting the shipping industry related to 'dry bulk,' which involves loading grains and timber directly onto the dock without packaging. Due to the hot and humid winter weather causing crop spoilage, demand for special warehouses such as refrigerated storage is expected to rise.
Furthermore, next year, a La Ni?a phenomenon?characterized by sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific remaining lower than average after El Ni?o?is expected to occur, bringing cold weather and heavy snowfall. This may lead to a rise in grain prices, causing 'agflation.'
A KB Management Research Institute official stated, "If global warming surpasses a certain level, the Earth's homeostasis system may collapse, and a greater climate crisis could arise. Since climate change significantly impacts the real economy, it is necessary to systematize risk management to minimize economic volatility caused by climate change and prepare proactive support measures for the climate crisis."
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