Putin and Kim Jong-un Meet for First Time in Over 4 Years... Focus on Possible Arms Deal

"North Korea and Russia Likely Avoid Giving Excuse to South Korea, US, and Japan"
Analysis Suggests Exchange Will Be Limited to Food and Ammunition, Not Nuclear Weapons

As North Korea and Russia announced plans to hold a summit, international attention is focused on whether the two countries will formalize arms trade. There are concerns that if the two nations strengthen military cooperation, the confrontation between South Korea, the U.S., and Japan versus North Korea, China, and Russia will intensify.

The close ties between the two countries appear to be driven by their mutual international isolation. Russia faces criticism and sanctions from Western societies due to its invasion of Ukraine and the prolonged war. North Korea is also sanctioned by the United Nations and the international community for repeated nuclear tests and ballistic missile launches.

It is widely believed that through this summit, North Korea will provide Russia with conventional weapons such as artillery shells in exchange for energy, food, and missile technology. The delegation accompanying North Korean State Affairs Commission Chairman Kim Jong-un on his visit to Russia includes Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui, along with Li Pyong-chol, Vice Chairman of the Party Central Military Commission and the first or second highest-ranking military official, and Pak Jong-chon, head of the Party’s Military Leadership.

Former Minister of Unification Jeong Se-hyun analyzed, "Both Li Pyong-chol and Pak Jong-chon are marshals, five-star generals. The fact that they are accompanying him suggests that Chairman Kim Jong-un intends to meet Putin to provide conventional weapons in exchange for cutting-edge military technology."

In an interview with CBS Radio's 'Kim Hyun-jung's News Show' on the 12th, Jeong said, "Pak Jong-chon, being a former Chief of the General Staff, is likely involved in various military cooperation issues rather than military technology. However, the fact that Li Pyong-chol, the top official responsible for missiles, is accompanying the delegation suggests that they are going to obtain missile technology. Li Pyong-chol will likely strive to secure this through negotiations with working-level officials. If it were not for this, Li Pyong-chol would have no reason to travel such a long distance at this time."

On April 25, 2019, Kim Jong-un (left) and Putin shake hands at the North Korea-Russia summit held in Vladivostok.
[Image source=Yonhap News]

The reason this summit is drawing attention is the concern that if the North Korea-China-Russia alliance strengthens, the confrontation with South Korea, the U.S., and Japan will become more pronounced, further escalating regional tensions.

However, experts believe that while close monitoring of the two countries’ ties is necessary, it is unlikely that North Korea, China, and Russia will immediately enhance military cooperation to the extent of conducting trilateral military exercises.

Kim Jun-hyung, former president of the Korea National Diplomatic Academy and professor at Handong Global University, said in an interview with KBS Radio's 'Choi Kyung-young's Strong Current Affairs' on the same day, "This is merely building a network. It is too far-fetched to say that North Korea, China, and Russia will immediately enter into alliance-level agreements and conduct military exercises like South Korea, the U.S., and Japan. While networking can serve as a link to start such activities, the decision to do so does not seem easy at this moment."

Professor Kim also viewed the possibility of North Korea receiving nuclear-powered submarine technology as low. Since Russia and China would not want to provide a pretext for closer ties among South Korea, the U.S., and Japan, this summit is expected to be limited to exchanges of food, energy, and conventional weapons.

He described the North Korea-Russia summit as "an initial stage of a honeymoon." Professor Kim explained, "China knows that the real target of South Korea, the U.S., and Japan is China itself. China believes that a North Korea-China-Russia bloc could provide a pretext for South Korea, the U.S., and Japan, so China is the least enthusiastic. China is even lowering the rank of the North Korean delegation and distancing itself, and Russia is also considering whether breaking relations with South Korea would be beneficial."

From North Korea’s perspective, there is analysis that it will pursue pragmatic diplomacy rather than forming a North Korea-China-Russia triangular alliance, fearing intensified pressure on itself. Former Minister Jeong said on CBS Radio, "China and Russia want to bring North Korea in to offset or break through U.S. pressure by forming a triangular alliance with South Korea, the U.S., and Japan, but North Korea would see joining such an alliance as counterproductive if it leads to increased pressure. For North Korea, it is better to extract what it can from both sides rather than formally establishing or creating a triangular alliance."