[New York Diary] "The Elephant Not in the Room": Trump's Victory

"The Elephant Not in the Room."

On the night of the 23rd (local time), right after the first Republican primary TV debate ahead of the 2024 U.S. presidential election, this phrase appeared simultaneously in major foreign news headlines. It is clear who the elephant not in the room refers to. In the U.S., the elephant typically symbolizes the Republican Party, and the "Elephant in the Room" means an unavoidable issue.

Although eight candidates participated in the debate, former President Donald Trump, the overwhelming frontrunner among Republican presidential candidates and the "unavoidable presence," did not attend. Trump had many reasons to avoid this event. He was scheduled to voluntarily surrender to a Georgia jail the next day. Even though Fox News leans conservative, there was no need to highlight his legal risks live on air. Also, it was unwise to become prey for competitors with single-digit support rates.

[Image source=Getty Images Yonhap News]

Fox News moderators refrained from asking questions about Trump for nearly an hour. Later, one of the moderators, Bret Baier, said, "Let's take a moment to talk about the 'elephant not in the room.'" He asked the eight candidates to raise their hands if they would support Trump as the Republican nominee even if he were convicted. Only two candidates, former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson, expressed opposition. The audience in the Milwaukee studio immediately cheered for candidates who said they would support Trump and booed those who said they would not. This was the biggest highlight of the debate and clearly showed who the main figure was.

When Baier told Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, the second-highest in Republican support, "Former President Trump is beating you by 30 to 40 percentage points," the audience cheered loudly. DeSantis, once seen as a strong alternative to Trump, has relatively lost presence this year as the legal risks surrounding Trump have rallied conservative voters. DeSantis responded with a somewhat stiff smile to the audience's cheers. Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley also said, "We must face the fact that Trump is the politician America hates the most. You cannot win an election that way," which drew boos from the audience.

Political newcomer and Indian-American businessman Vivek Ramaswamy attracted attention in the debate with bold remarks such as "Climate change is a hoax" and "Opposition to military aid to Ukraine," but he was still under Trump's shadow. No matter how much Ramaswamy rises as the "new trend," he does not seem to pose a threat to Trump, whom he called "the greatest president of the 21st century." Trump later shared a video of Ramaswamy's remarks on his social media platform Truth Social, captioning it "This is the truth."

As feared, the debate ended up being a "battle for second place" behind Trump. Most candidates, judging that attacking Trump, who enjoys high support among Republicans, would not help their own ratings, hesitated to criticize even where criticism was warranted. Some local commentators even suggested it was "an audition to be Trump’s running mate."

The real winner of this debate was the elephant not in the room. At present, it is hard to find a reason for Trump to attend the Republican Party’s second primary debate scheduled for the end of next month.