Taeyoungho "Leadership Impact if Military Satellite Launch Fails"
Shin Jongwoo "Purpose to Show Kim Jong-un's Leadership"
Cha Doohyun "Possibility of Facing the Greatest Test"
As North Korea failed in its second military satellite launch and announced a third launch around October, diplomatic experts have analyzed that repeated failures in military satellite launches could negatively impact the leadership of Kim Jong-un, General Secretary of the Workers' Party. If Kim's leadership is shaken and combined with a collapse in public livelihood, the possibility of a popular uprising cannot be ruled out.
On the 24th, Tae Yong-ho, a former North Korean diplomat and member of the People Power Party, wrote on his social media (SNS), "Every time the military reconnaissance satellite launch fails, Kim Jong-un's leadership will continue to be hit," adding, "As this happens, it is highly likely that North Korea's control over its people and internal purges will intensify, accelerating public discontent."
Representative Tae cited the appearance of a 'riot suppression unit' at the recent military parade and the occurrence of large-scale crimes such as homemade bomb attacks within North Korea as evidence of 'public discontent.' He stated, "We must also watch for the possibility of a popular uprising caused by the collapse of public livelihood in North Korea."
North Korea launched a space launch vehicle carrying a reconnaissance satellite at around 3:50 a.m. that day but admitted failure through the Korean Central News Agency two hours later. While the first and second stages flew normally, an error occurred during the third stage flight. This was an attempt about three months after the first launch and appears to have been a reckless attempt ahead of the 75th anniversary of the founding of the North Korean regime (September 9th), which ended in failure. Representative Tae remarked, "They probably wanted to fire celebratory shots ahead of the 75th anniversary on September 9th, but failing again has embarrassed them."
North Korea's obsession with military satellite launches is to promote Kim Jong-un's leadership to the North Korean people. On the same day, Shin Jong-woo, Secretary-General of the Korea Defense and Security Forum, appeared on YTN's 'The News' and said, "(There is) obviously a political purpose in the military satellite launch. Because there is a strong intention to showcase Kim Jong-un's great leadership, they are rushing it continuously," adding, "If they keep launching like this, they will eventually succeed, but North Korea's position is that they must quickly put some satellite into orbit to promote Kim Jong-un's leadership, which is why they are obsessed."
Conversely, if military satellite launches continue to fail, Kim Jong-un's leadership could suffer significant damage. Cha Doo-hyun, Senior Research Fellow at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, pointed out on his SNS, "They will launch (the military satellite) again. This time, they even announced a deadline. The problem is that the path dependency caused by this self-fulfilling prophecy may have started to constrain Kim Jong-un himself." 'Path dependency' refers to an obsession with one path without alternatives.
Since North Korea has repeatedly declared its intention to launch 'military satellites,' even if failures continue, it cannot easily retract its statements, which will be a heavy burden on Kim Jong-un. Senior Research Fellow Cha said, "Ultimately, what Pyongyang can rely on is 'self-reliance,' but this too is likely exhausted by false reports and endless demands for results," adding, "Whether Kim Jong-un can break free from the path dependency he has created is the key to regime and system maintenance, and it is highly likely that Kim Jong-un is entering the greatest test of his leadership."
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