[News in War History] The Real Backdrop of the Niger Coup in Africa: 'High Birth Rates' and 'Population Pressure'

Birth Rate 6.82, World No.1... Facing Food Shortage
'Population Pressure' and 'Malthusian Trap' Threatening War
High Birth Rate Society with Severe Civil War... Prolonged Political Instability

The aftermath of the military rebellion that broke out in Niger, Africa, is spreading worldwide. Following the collapse of Niger's pro-Western regime, a major uranium supplier to the European Union (EU), the newly established military coup forces have cut off uranium exports to the West and are taking a pro-Russian stance, raising the possibility of military intervention by Western countries.

However, some express concerns that even if the West intervenes militarily in Niger, which has experienced numerous military rebellions since gaining independence from French colonial rule in 1960, another military rebellion will follow. This is because Niger, one of the poorest countries in Africa, is facing severe population pressure with the world's highest birth rate, a problem that cannot be resolved overnight.

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

Just as South Korea worries about national extinction due to low birth rates, Niger, a 'high birth rate' society, is also facing serious difficulties. In this segment, we will take a look at the population pressure issues in African countries experiencing repeated political instability amid rapid population growth, which is the exact opposite of South Korea's situation, as well as the history of wars triggered by these pressures.

◆News: The Real Cause Behind the Niger Coup, the World's No. 1 'Birth Rate'

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

According to AFP, Abdourahmane Tiani, the head of security for Niger's military coup leader, dismissed international calls to halt the coup in a speech on the 2nd (local time). He stated, "We will not succumb to any threats from anywhere," and "We reject any interference in Niger's internal affairs."

On the 26th of last month, he ousted and detained pro-Western President Mohamed Bazoum and declared himself head of state. Large-scale protests welcoming his takeover were observed locally in Niger. Western countries have been rushing to evacuate their nationals, increasing concerns about prolonged political instability.

At first glance, it may seem that Tiani's personal ambition as the presidential security chief was the root cause of the coup. However, in Niger, where numerous coups have occurred since independence in 1960, more structural social issues are pointed out as the real causes of the coup?namely, population problems.

According to France 24, a French international news channel, Niger's birth rate was recorded at 6.82 in 2019 by the World Bank (WB), ranking it first in the world. Niger's population, which was less than 5 million at independence in 1960, now exceeds 27 million. It has increased more than fivefold over about 60 years. By 2050, the population is expected to exceed 50 million, more than double the current figure.

As the population has surged excessively compared to economic growth, the poverty rate continues to rise. The poverty rate, which was about 13% of the total population in 2015, exceeded 20% last year. Basic necessities such as food and water for survival are severely lacking before even considering education or social welfare. The intense survival competition has inevitably led to ongoing civil wars.

◆History 1: 'Population Pressure' and the 'Malthusian Trap' That Always Sparked Wars

Portrait of Thomas Malthus, the author of An Essay on the Principle of Population.

In fact, the social problems caused by population pressure that Niger is experiencing have historically always triggered wars regardless of the era. Especially in ancient and medieval times, when surplus production was insufficient and technological development was quite stagnant, social chaos and civil wars began when the population rapidly exceeded the society's carrying capacity. This period is referred to as 'Nansei (?世)' in East Asia, including China, and as the 'Turbulent period' in the West.

The Three Kingdoms period in China, widely known as a symbol of turbulent times due to the popularity of the "Romance of the Three Kingdoms," is also known as a time of rapid population growth. Around 25 AD, when the Later Han was established, China's population was about 30 million, but by 180 AD, just before the outbreak of the Yellow Turban Rebellion, the population was estimated to be between 50 and 60 million. The population nearly doubled in about 150 years, leading to severe shortages of food and resources, which triggered the peasant rebellion that marked the beginning of the turbulent era.

The Mongol Empire, which established a vast empire across the Eurasian continent in the 13th century, was famous for using tactics that artificially increased population pressure in enemy capitals and cities to cause them to collapse from within. The Mongol cavalry, vulnerable in sieges, continuously defeated enemies in the field and deliberately induced residents living outside city walls to evacuate inside. When the population pressure on the enemy's walls and key defenses increased, they immediately besieged the city to rapidly deplete food supplies.

Because rapid population growth in pre-modern times directly led to civil wars and conflicts, excessive population growth was often regarded as a social evil. The scholar Thomas Malthus, famous for the term 'Malthusian Trap,' formulated this into a theory. In his 1798 book, "An Essay on the Principle of Population," Malthus argued that governments must implement strong population control measures to maintain the carrying capacity of society.

He emphasized that while food production increased arithmetically and was limited, the population grew geometrically and exponentially, so governments needed to intervene to control population for national survival. He strongly advocated for more aggressive family planning to suppress births, especially among the low-income population that did not produce wealth but consumed it.

His theory later provided a strong justification for Germany, a major belligerent in the two world wars, to pursue the policy of 'Lebensraum,' which involved seizing foreign territories to expand living space and escape population pressure.

◆History 2: 'Lebensraum,' the Justification for World Wars I and II

A poster in which Nazi Germany explained the justification for the Lebensraum policy.
[Image source=Getty Images]

Lebensraum literally means 'living space.' It was a colonialist doctrine that emerged in modern Germany. In short, when population rapidly increases and social population pressure rises, war should be waged to occupy foreign territories and implement active migration and colonial policies. The government's basic mission was to significantly expand the living space for its people?a violent logic.

This theory was developed by 19th-century German geographers Friedrich Ratzel and Karl Haushofer. It was based on eugenics, a distorted version of Darwin's theory of evolution that was popular worldwide at the time, and formed the foundation of external colonial policies advocating the conquest and colonization of African and Asian countries considered inferior to Europe.

This theory became a strong justification for war for the German government through the two world wars. Adolf Hitler, the leader of Nazi Germany, argued in his autobiography "Mein Kampf" that Germany must secure the living space of the German people according to the Lebensraum doctrine and must dominate Eastern Europe and all of Russia.

However, when World War II broke out and Nazi Germany initially seized vast territories, it faced a severe shortage of population to settle in those lands. Consequently, Nazi Germany established 'Lebensborn,' a facility that functioned like a baby factory to increase the pure Aryan population.

Lebensborn facilities, set up in occupied territories across Europe, forcibly abducted women exhibiting Aryan traits such as blonde hair and blue eyes, as claimed by Nazi Germany, impregnated them, and artificially produced children. After the war, it was revealed that sexual assaults by Nazi SS officers were rampant in these facilities.

◆Implication: The Hardships of High Birth Rate Societies Comparable to Low Birth Rate Issues

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

These horrific historical episodes intertwined with population policies show how long governments have sacrificed their people to achieve so-called optimal population levels through artificial population control.

South Korea, now promoting marriage and childbirth amid worsening low birth rates and aging, also implemented very strong birth control policies until the 1980s, believing it had escaped population pressure and the Malthusian trap. Globally, South Korea and Japan's birth control policies achieved remarkable results in a short time but are now considered a double-edged sword that significantly contributed to the current low birth rate trap.

However, for African countries plagued by high birth rates and ongoing political instability, the low birth rates of developed countries are enviable. Political stability can only be achieved when there is a substantial middle-aged and older population with a certain level of stable living conditions. Currently, most African countries have a classic pyramid-shaped population structure, with more than half the population under 15 years old. Young people, facing a lack of jobs, often take up arms and join civil wars or regional terrorist groups. This demonstrates that the problems of high birth rate societies are as challenging as those of low birth rate societies.