[Bread-Baking Typewriter] OECD Is No Exception... The Already Begun Food Crisis

Triggered by the Russia-Ukraine War
Pain from Poor Countries like Africa... Developed Countries Are No Exception

Russia's invasion of Ukraine was the trigger for the food crisis. As the supply of energy such as crude oil and natural gas became unstable, the global economy began to shake immediately. Prices of oil and grains surged, causing inflation and tightening daily life. Although the Asia region, where rice is the staple food, has been relatively less affected, it cannot be assured. As the war prolongs, our dining tables are also under threat.

Ruan Wei, director and researcher at the Japan Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Research Institute, diagnosed this in the book Food Crisis, the Already Begun Future. The food crisis is no longer an issue only for some regions like Africa. He analyzes that as a global food crisis begins, food resources will become a weapon that reshapes the world economic order.

Victimized Once by Great Power Logic, Twice by War

The author viewed Russia and Ukraine's invasion as a major turning point in the food crisis. He meticulously examined the impact on various countries based on numerous statistics and firsthand visits. The region most severely affected is Africa. War always makes the weak the first victims. According to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization in 2020, Egypt depends on Russia and Ukraine for over 70% of its imported wheat, and Lebanon also depends on them for 60%. Tunisia relies on Russia and Ukraine for 80% of its total grain imports. About 50 developing countries depend on Russia and Ukraine for more than 30% of their imported wheat.

The reason for the high dependency is simple: it is cheap. The distance from harvest sites to transport destinations is closer than from the US, Europe, Canada, or Australia, and prices are about 20-40% lower. Still, Africa has vast land. So why has it failed to achieve grain self-sufficiency? First, there are environmental differences. Historically, Asia settled on rice, Europe on wheat, and the Americas on corn as their main grains. In contrast, Africa's wide arid zones and vegetation differences prevented grains from being unified. Rapid urbanization caused cities to consume wheat, while rural areas relied on traditional grains like cassava, dividing dietary habits. The urban population ratio rose rapidly from 19.1% in 1961 to 42.9% in 2018, approaching Asia's 49.7%. The increased new grain demand matching the urban population was mostly met by imports rather than African farmers' production.

Policies to protect domestic farmers and prioritize local crops were absent. Most African politicians and senior officials had degrees from US and European universities and had worked in UN agencies. They valued communication with aid organizations from developed countries and advanced in such environments. As a result, they were content with external official development assistance (ODA) amounting to nearly 20% of GDP. Ultimately, Africa's urban growth enriched farmers in the US, Europe, Ukraine, and Russia rather than African farmers.

The International Community Ignores Africa... The Global Food Crisis May Expand

The author sharply criticizes the international community's lack of interest in hunger issues in poor countries like Africa and the Middle East. According to the UN, about $1.7635 billion, or 80% of the target amount, was raised for Ukraine aid, but only about $472 million was collected for South Sudan support, about 28% of the requested amount. Former President Barack Obama recently commented on the Titanic submersible 'Titan' incident, saying he understood the media attention on the submersible but could not tolerate that it received more attention than the deaths of 700 refugees who drowned when their boat sank off the coast of Greece, reflecting a similar context.

The author further warns that the 'great power logic' could expand into a global food crisis. As the US and Europe lead sanctions against Russia, even if global agriculture has production capacity, markets may move according to great power logic. Since major fertilizers are mainly supplied by Russia and some other countries, the food balance could become more unstable. Additionally, with record heatwaves and low rainfall reducing grain productivity, national-level 'food security' is essential. "The key to agricultural production is stable demand," he says, "Creating an environment where farmers and livestock producers can invest with confidence is the way to improve food security."