Voice Message Released After One Week
Suggests Possibility of Continued Involvement in Ukraine War
Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Russian mercenary company Wagner Group that failed in an armed rebellion, released a voice message after a week. Amid reports both inside and outside Russia that President Vladimir Putin had ordered his assassination, this is interpreted as a show of resilience. He consistently claimed that he staged a protest, not an armed rebellion, and expressed his intention to continue participating in the war in Ukraine with forces reorganized in Belarus.
However, experts believe that the Wagner Group is unlikely to continue its involvement in the Ukraine war as Prigozhin intends. Following President Putin’s assassination order against Prigozhin and the active confiscation of companies and assets owned by him, it is analyzed that the survival of the Wagner Group, which was sustained by strong capital power, will be difficult.
According to the U.S. political media outlet Politico on the 3rd (local time), Prigozhin released a new 41-second voice message on his Telegram account after a week. In the message, he said, "I hope you understand that our march of justice was to fight traitors and move society," and expressed gratitude to the Russian people who supported him.
He then emphasized, "I am confident that we will see our next victory in the near future." This is interpreted as his intention to reorganize the Wagner Group mercenary forces who moved to Belarus with him and to jump back into the Ukrainian front to achieve results.
This voice message was released after foreign media reports that President Putin ordered the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) to assassinate Prigozhin. According to CNN the previous day, Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence, said in an interview with the U.S. online media The War Zone, "Putin ordered the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) to assassinate Prigozhin," adding, "It will take time for the FSB to plan and carry out the assassination, and whether the mission succeeds will become clear over time."
As rumors spread that Prigozhin had already been assassinated, he appeared to release this message to prove his survival and clarify that he had no intention of rebellion against the Putin regime. By expressing his willingness to gather forces again in Belarus to assist in the Ukraine war, it is interpreted as a move to seek forgiveness from President Putin.
Earlier, on the 26th of last month, immediately after the failed military rebellion, he released an 11-minute voice message on his Telegram account explaining, "I was not trying to overthrow the Russian government." He is known to have taken refuge in Belarus on the 27th of last month but has not yet appeared in public. About 1,000 Wagner Group mercenaries who followed him are reportedly stationed at a military base provided by the Belarusian government.
However, whether the Wagner Group will participate again in the Ukraine war through Belarus as Prigozhin wishes remains uncertain. Following President Putin’s order, Russian authorities have begun confiscating companies and assets owned by him, cutting off funding, making the survival of the Wagner Group itself difficult.
According to The Wall Street Journal (WSJ), Russian FSB agents conducted a large-scale raid on Patriot Media Group, a media company owned by Prigozhin located in Saint Petersburg, the previous day. WSJ reported, "Following President Putin’s confiscation measures, Patriot Media Group, a representative company of Prigozhin, is expected to be absorbed into the National Media Group." The National Media Group is led by Alina Kabaeva, a former Russian rhythmic gymnastics national team athlete known as Putin’s secret lover and mother of more than three children.
As Prigozhin’s assets in Russia are rapidly confiscated, there are prospects that maintaining the Wagner Group itself may become difficult. The U.S. Institute for the Study of War (ISW) analyzed, "The Wagner Group was popular because it received higher pay and better supplies compared to the Russian military," adding, "If Russian authorities block Prigozhin’s payment systems following asset confiscation, it will be difficult to maintain mercenary recruitment."
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