[Global Issue+] Russia's Version of the 'Wihwado Retreat' Ended in a Day... What Was the Reason for Putin's Closest Ally's Uprising?

Continued Discord Among Russian Military Leadership... Repeated Defeats Criticized
Judged Not to Be a Challenge to Putin
Russia in Anarchy... Putin Regime Weakened

On the 24th (local time), Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Russian mercenary group Wagner Group, stated in a video that they are advancing toward Moscow after capturing the military facility in Rostov-on-Don in southern Russia. Rostov-on-Don = Reuters·Yonhap News Agency

The incident in which Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner Group mercenary company that was at the forefront of the Russian army on the main frontlines of the Ukraine war, suddenly turned his guns and launched a military rebellion by advancing toward Moscow became a global sensation. Although the large-scale rebellion was temporarily resolved when Prigozhin agreed to a compromise with the Russian and Belarusian governments and moved to Belarus within a day, concerns have been raised about the possibility of similar military rebellions occurring at any time in the future.

Various theories have emerged regarding the reason for Prigozhin's uprising, but the dominant interpretation is that he did not challenge the absolute power established by Russian President Vladimir Putin. Rather, it is seen as an accidental rebellion caused by intensified conflicts among close aides over the position of Russia’s second-in-command, Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu, who is currently in crisis due to failures in commanding the Ukraine war.

As the Ukraine war shows no signs of breakthrough, the Putin regime’s prestige has significantly declined due to its inadequate response to the sudden internal rebellion, raising doubts about whether the war can continue.

Prigozhin Agrees to Lukashenko’s Mediation, Withdraws Troops... Rebellion Temporarily Ends

[Image source=EPA Yonhap News]

On the 24th (local time), according to Russian TASS news agency and other local media, Prigozhin, head of the Wagner Group, stated in an audio message released that day, "To avoid bloodshed within Russia, I have ordered the troops advancing toward Moscow to withdraw," adding, "They tried to dismantle the Wagner Group, and we started the march of justice on the 23rd. Within a day, we had come almost 200 km close to Moscow."

According to the British BBC, Prigozhin and Wagner Group soldiers advancing toward Moscow agreed to accept the mediation proposal from Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko and withdrew their forces. On that day, the Belarusian presidential office announced, "Under an agreement with President Putin, President Lukashenko negotiated with Prigozhin," and "Both sides agreed that bloodshed within Russia is unacceptable."

President Putin, who had declared an emergency national address the previous day threatening to "punish" the rebels, reportedly accepted the agreement and made a conciliatory gesture. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov emphasized at a briefing that day, "The criminal case against Prigozhin will be dropped. He will leave for Belarus."

Thus, the Wagner Group’s rebellion, which shook all of Russia, was temporarily resolved within a day. After rising up on the 23rd, claiming that the Russian military bombed their camp causing many mercenary deaths, they occupied a military facility in Rostov-on-Don about 500 km from Moscow and announced their advance toward Moscow. The sudden news of the rebellion within Russia drew intense attention from the United States and Western intelligence agencies, becoming a global topic.

For now, the rebellion seems to have subsided as Prigozhin accepted the mediation proposal, but the Putin regime’s anxiety is expected to grow as it remains uncertain when and where such military rebellions might start again.

Clash Over Putin’s Second-in-Command Position... Will the Defense Minister Be Replaced?

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

Amid numerous theories about the nature of this rebellion, experts generally believe that this military uprising was not aimed at overthrowing the Putin regime.

The New York Times (NYT) analyzed, "Even if the Wagner Group’s forces number in the tens of thousands, they lack major heavy weapons, and if the Russian government freezes their funds and supplies, a private mercenary company cannot sustain tens of thousands of troops," adding, "Prigozhin is desperately trying to secure his position in Russian politics after the war."

In particular, interpretations suggest that the background of this rebellion lies in intensified conflicts within the Russian military over the position of second-in-command to Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu, who has been criticized for continuous poor performance since the Ukraine war began. Prigozhin has strongly advocated for replacing the defense minister, criticizing the Russian Ministry of Defense’s flawed strategies.

Although Shoigu is not a military officer by background, he was appointed defense minister by President Putin due to his outstanding administrative skills and was even nicknamed Putin’s successor, regarded as a powerful second-in-command. He also led military reforms within the Russian army for over a decade before the Ukraine war. However, as various weaknesses of the Russian military were exposed during this war, calls for his swift replacement have grown louder.

No Reserve Forces to Stop Rebels... Putin Regime Faces Dilemma

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

Although the rebel advance on Moscow was barely stopped, the Putin regime is assessed to have suffered a significant blow to its authority maintained until now due to this rebellion. Attention is also focused on whether the war effort can continue.

Above all, the fact that reserve forces capable of stopping the rebel advance were not properly secured and that they advanced so easily near Moscow exposes vulnerabilities in Russia’s internal security. The U.S. Institute for the Study of War (ISW) pointed out, "While the Russian government announced mobilization of regional defense forces and police during Prigozhin’s advance, there have been no reports or videos showing these forces engaged in combat," adding, "This shows that there is almost no force to defend inside Russia in an emergency, and if Prigozhin had been ordered to continue advancing, they would have reached the outskirts of Moscow."

It is also noted that the fact that it was Belarusian President Lukashenko, not Putin himself, who mediated the rebels’ withdrawal dealt a severe blow to Putin’s authority. During his more than 20 years of iron-fisted rule, a rebellion by a close aide was unimaginable. Attention is now focused on how this rebellion will affect the ongoing Ukraine war.