[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] North Korea's Parade Preparations Amid Satellite Failures

North Korea's preparations for a large-scale military parade have been detected again, with the event expected to be held next month. It is likely aimed at compensating for the failed satellite launch and is expected to be rescheduled to coincide with Victory Day, considering the political schedule, but analysts believe it is also intended to strengthen internal unity.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

According to Radio Free Asia (RFA) on the 21st, the US commercial satellite service 'Planet Labs' captured numerous troops and vehicles in photos taken on the 15th of the military parade training ground around Mirim Airfield in Pyongyang, North Korea.

Experts analyze that preparations for the military parade are in full swing targeting the 27th of next month, which is the anniversary of the Korean War armistice and called 'Victory Day' in North Korea.

Jung Sung-hak, a research fellow at the Korea Institute for Security Strategy who analyzed the photos, estimated the troop size to be between 4,000 and 8,000 and the number of vehicles between 700 and 800. He said, "It appears to be a large-scale military parade training that has not been seen recently." Jo Han-beom, a senior research fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification, estimated that the actual number of participating troops would be higher, noting that when preparing for a military parade, training is usually conducted separately in various locations besides Mirim Airfield.

Since the end of last month, around the time when the launch of the Military Reconnaissance Satellite No. 1 failed, vehicles and troops disappeared from the training ground area but movements resumed from the 10th, and full-scale marching practice began from the 11th, RFA reported.

If technical issues are not a major hindrance, North Korea is likely to attempt a re-launch timed with Victory Day, considering the political schedule. A successful satellite launch could boost the morale and unity of the residents and serve as a breakthrough to revitalize the atmosphere amid sluggish economic performance. Recently, North Korea has been actively conducting mass campaigns to stir patriotism among residents, such as the 'relay of loyalty letters' to General Secretary Kim Jong-un and gatherings to present 'Sonyeonho' multiple rocket launchers.

However, experts predict that since North Korea publicly criticized 'irresponsible workers' during the plenary meeting's high-intensity review of the satellite launch failure, the technical defects may be more serious than expected, and it may take some time before a re-launch.

Ultimately, it is analyzed that North Korea will use this military parade to compensate for the satellite launch failure, strengthen internal unity, and demonstrate military power. They may reveal new strategic weapons at the parade or attempt another satellite launch before the parade and, if successful, showcase it during the event.

North Korea's most recent military parade was held on February 8 to commemorate the 75th anniversary of the founding of the Korean People's Army, known as 'Kangunjeol,' where the latest solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) Hwasong-18 was unveiled.