Could Trump’s Indictment Become a Game Changer That Flips the US Presidential Race?

The Guardian: "A First in US History... A Monumental Event"
Charges Against Trump Become a Variable Shaking Voters

Former President Donald Trump has become the first ex-president in U.S. history to be indicted on federal charges. Less than three months after becoming the first current or former U.S. president to be criminally charged, he has now been indicted on federal violations, tightening the judicial noose around him. What impact will the federal prosecutors' indictment of former President Trump have on next year's presidential election? The British newspaper The Guardian analyzed the recent federal prosecutors' actions and the resulting changes in the election landscape from multiple angles.

On the 8th (local time), the U.S. Department of Justice indicted former President Trump on charges including violations of the Espionage Act. Trump is alleged to have deliberately removed classified documents containing national defense secrets and attempted to obstruct justice by making false statements to investigators. Although the exact charges have not been fully disclosed, the main basis for the indictment is reportedly the suspicion that he removed and stored classified documents at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida after leaving office.

The Guardian reported, "A genuinely monumental event has occurred as the first former president in U.S. history has been indicted for federal violations." Less than three months after being criminally charged for the first time in history among current and former presidents for allegedly paying hush money to an adult film actress over a sexual scandal in March, he has now earned another 'first' title.

As the race for next year's presidential election intensifies, Trump's judicial risks have become a reality. The Guardian pointed out that Trump will soon join the ranks of notorious former presidents such as Italy's Silvio Berlusconi, France's Nicolas Sarkozy, and South Korea's Park Geun-hye and Lee Myung-bak. Berlusconi was disgracefully forced out of politics due to underage prostitution and tax evasion, while Sarkozy was indicted on charges of judge bribery but received a suspended sentence.

This indictment is also seen as a test for American democracy, which has upheld the principle of not indicting former presidents for over 230 years. Historically, U.S. presidents have not been indicted for criminal charges during or after their terms. Even Richard Nixon, who resigned mid-term due to the Watergate scandal, was never indicted. Gerald Ford, who served as vice president under Nixon and later became president, granted Nixon a special pardon, preventing any criminal prosecution.

Former U.S. President Donald Trump. [Image source=AFP Yonhap News]

The opposition Republican Party has fiercely criticized this as the "judicialization of politics." Kevin McCarthy, the Republican Speaker of the House, tweeted, "It is unscrupulous for a president to indict a leading candidate on the opposing side," adding, "All Americans who believe in me and the rule of law will stand with former President Trump against this grave injustice." Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, a prominent Republican contender, also tweeted, "The weaponization of federal law enforcement is a deadly threat to free society," and directly questioned, "Why is the prosecution so zealous in pursuing former President Trump but so passive regarding Hunter Biden and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton?"

However, political and legal experts in the U.S. believe that even if former President Trump is found guilty in the worst-case scenario, he can still run for president. The U.S. Constitution specifies only three requirements for presidential candidates: being a natural-born citizen of the United States, at least 35 years old, and having resided in the U.S. for at least 14 years. Nevertheless, the various charges and indictments against Trump represent significant judicial risks that could sway voters' opinions in next year's general election.

Former President Trump is countering with the frame of a "Democratic witch hunt," aiming to rally his strong base of supporters. Since investigations and indictments have previously led to strong consolidation of his support base, some analysts suggest that a guilty verdict could have a similar effect. David Super, a law professor at Georgetown University, said, "Former President Trump may be indicted several more times in the future, but it will not affect his ability to run for office or hold public office."