Increase in Medical School Quotas: Government Wants 'More', KMA Wants 'Less'... "Let's Recalculate Supply and Demand First"

Agreement on Medical School Quotas Reached, but Discrepancies in Expansion Scale
Government Research Institute Predicts Shortage of 27,232 Doctors by 2035
KMA States "Our Estimates Differ"
Expert Forum on Supply and Demand Forecast to be Held This Month

Medical Issues Consultative Body Meeting
Photo by Yonhap News

The Ministry of Health and Welfare and the Korean Medical Association (KMA) have agreed to expand the number of medical school admissions starting from the 2025 academic year. However, there remains disagreement over the scale of the increase needed to strengthen essential and regional healthcare. Since the medical school quota has been fixed at 3,058 for 18 years, the government is pushing for a significant increase, while the KMA is likely to oppose with a minimal increase.

On the afternoon of the 8th, the Ministry and the KMA reached a consensus at the 10th Medical Issues Consultative Body to expand the appropriate number of doctors based on scientific evidence to reinforce essential and regional healthcare. They agreed that the medical school quota can be increased starting from the 2025 admissions. As a condition, the KMA demanded the enactment of laws to reduce legal burdens, stating that criminal prosecutions due to medical accidents accelerate the departure from essential medical fields. They also requested measures to prevent the newly increased number of doctors from concentrating in metropolitan areas and popular specialties.

This is the first time since the initial consultative meeting on January 26 that both sides have reached a consensus on expanding the medical school quota. Although about ten meetings have been held so far, discussions on the quota were postponed due to various medical issues such as the COVID-19 pandemic, the enactment of the Nursing Act, and telemedicine.

However, the KMA dismissed this agreement on expanding the medical school quota as “just one of several options.” Since it takes at least 10 years to train practicing doctors, the KMA still prioritizes creating incentives for current medical students to enter essential and regional healthcare fields.

There are expected difficulties in deciding how much to increase the medical school quota. The government aims to increase it by 300 to 500 students annually. The KMA prefers a smaller scale of increase. The Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs, a national research institute that forecasts essential medical workforce supply and demand, has stated that by 2025 and 2035, the total number of doctors will be short by 5,516 and 27,232 respectively compared to demand. The KMA responded that “this differs from our own calculations.”

Both sides have agreed to first hold a forum of experts on medical workforce supply and demand forecasts within this month to clarify their differing positions.

To reflect the expanded medical school quota in the 2025 admissions guidelines, both sides must finalize the scale of the increase and notify the Ministry of Education by January next year. Professor Lee Ju-yeol of the Department of Health Administration at Namseoul University said, “Since both the Ministry’s position that there is an absolute shortage of doctors and the KMA’s position that essential and regional medical infrastructure is poor are correct, the Ministry should prepare short-term support measures, and the KMA also needs to make some concessions regarding the scale of the increase.”

Although their positions still differ, both sides view the fact that the medical school quota discussion has been officially placed on the agenda and a consensus has been formed as a significant advancement. Lee Jeong-geun, the KMA’s full-time vice president who attended the meeting, said immediately after, “For decades, both sides have run parallel like railroad tracks on the issue of expanding the medical school quota, but this time we succeeded in narrowing the gap for the first time.” A Ministry of Health and Welfare official stated, “Since medical professionals prioritize protecting public health, discussions on the medical school quota are fully negotiable.”