Risk of Grain Export and Agreement Collapse Due to Ukraine Dam Collapse... Concerns Over Worsening Food Crisis

Expansion of Flooded Areas Across Kherson Province
Russia Threatens, Suggests Withdrawal from Black Sea Grain Deal

As the Kakhovka Dam in the Kherson region of southern Ukraine collapsed, flooding expanded in the Black Sea coastal area, a major grain-producing region, raising concerns that the global food crisis will worsen. Russia blamed Ukraine for the dam collapse, accusing it of an attack, and threatened to withdraw from the existing Black Sea Grain Initiative, raising fears that the grain supply chain could be jeopardized once again.

The port of Kherson submerged by floodwaters following the collapse of the Kahowka Dam on the 7th (local time). Kherson=AP·Yonhap News

According to CNN on the 7th (local time), Martin Frick, the Germany representative of the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP), warned, "The dam collapse caused massive flooding that damaged newly planted crops," adding, "Hope is disappearing for the 345 million hungry people worldwide who depend on Ukrainian grain."

Since the Kakhovka Dam collapse the previous day, floodwaters and sediment have swept through the lower Dnipro River, significantly expanding the flooded areas in Kherson's major grain-producing regions. The Kakhovka Dam holds 18 cubic kilometers of water, comparable to the U.S. Great Salt Lake, and in the early stages of the dam collapse, water levels in the Kherson area rose by tens of meters, completely submerging the major grain export port of Kherson.

The floodwaters have also swept away tens of thousands of landmines laid by Ukraine and Russia along the Dnipro River front, raising concerns that future recovery efforts will face significant obstacles. The British newspaper The Guardian pointed out that repairing the damage caused by the dam collapse could take anywhere from several years to decades.

Moreover, the Russian government is shifting all responsibility for the attack onto Ukraine and claims that Russian fertilizer supply chains were also attacked by Ukrainian operatives, threatening to terminate the Black Sea Grain Initiative, which further exacerbates concerns about the food crisis.

According to AFP, the Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that "Ukrainian operatives blew up part of the pipeline used to export Russian ammonia on the evening of the 5th." The explosion destroyed the ammonia pipeline passing through Ukraine's Kharkiv region and injured some civilians, drawing harsh criticism. Ukraine has not issued an official response to the Russian Ministry of Defense's claims.

Russia is using this as a pretext to refuse the extension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative and hinting at withdrawal from the agreement, threatening the grain supply chain. Russia and the United Nations are scheduled to negotiate the extension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative in Geneva, Switzerland, on the 9th. If Russia declares withdrawal from the agreement, it is feared that hunger in the Middle East and Africa, regions highly dependent on grain from this area, will worsen significantly.