"Weight in mid-140kg... Suffering from severe sleep disorder"
Stress leads to heavy drinking and binge eating... Entire family has heart disease
Possibility of power maintenance centered on Kim Yo-jong in case of death
It has been observed that North Korean State Affairs Commission Chairman Kim Jong-un's weight has increased to 140 kg. Despite suffering from illnesses including sleep disorders, he has not controlled his alcohol and tobacco consumption, raising concerns among intelligence agencies that his health problems may worsen. Since North Korea essentially maintains a 'sole leader' system akin to a dynasty, there are also forecasts that Kim Jong-un's incapacitation could escalate into regional security issues.
According to intelligence agencies on the 6th, the National Intelligence Service (NIS) has identified that Kim Jong-un is suffering from significant insomnia. This assessment is based on North Korea's concentrated collection of the latest medical information overseas, including zolpidem for treating insomnia in high-ranking officials, as of April this year. However, considering that North Korea is importing large quantities of foreign cigarettes such as Marlboro and Dunhill, as well as high-end side dishes, it is presumed that Kim Jong-un's dependence on alcohol and nicotine is likely to increase. The NIS is also closely monitoring the possibility that Kim Jong-un's health could fall into a vicious cycle.
Weight changes of Kim Jong-un, Chairman of the State Affairs Commission of North Korea. (From left) Around 90 kg during his time as successor in 2010, increasing to 130-140 kg at the Pyongyang housing groundbreaking ceremony in March 2021. Later, at the 4th Plenary Meeting of the 8th Central Committee of the Workers' Party in December 2021, he appeared to have lost 20 kg through weight control, but by May this year, during on-site guidance at the Reconnaissance Satellite Launch Preparation Committee, his weight had increased again to the mid-140 kg range.
Rumors about Chairman Kim's 'health abnormalities' frequently surface. Although still relatively young, he is known to suffer from heart disease and adult illnesses due to excessive weight and habits of enjoying alcohol and tobacco. When he appeared on the 16th of last month after a month-long absence to conduct on-site guidance for the Emergency Satellite Launch Preparation Committee, distinct dark circles under his eyes and black spots presumed to be wounds below his left wrist were observed. Intelligence agencies estimate these to be dermatitis caused by a combination of allergies and stress.
The most direct indicator of Kim Jong-un's health condition is his 'weight.' According to the NIS's artificial intelligence (AI) analysis, his current weight is estimated to be in the mid-140 kg range. In the early years of his rule around 2011-2012, he maintained a weight of about 90 kg, but it rapidly increased to 120 kg in 2014. By 2019, his weight had risen to 140 kg, and around 2020, he reportedly lost about 20 kg through dieting. However, images captured by North Korean state media over the past one to two years show him appearing even more swollen than before, likely due to repeated binge drinking and overeating caused by stress.
His body mass index (BMI), which indicates obesity level, shows a serious figure. Born in January 1984 and currently 39 years old, Kim Jong-un's physical measurements are estimated at 170 cm in height and 145 kg in weight. His BMI is 50.2 kg/m², far exceeding the threshold for severe obesity (30 kg/m²). The normal range is 18.5 to 24.9 kg/m². Some speculate that, given that both President Kim Il-sung and Chairman Kim Jong-il suffered from cardiovascular diseases, if Kim Jong-un fails to resolve his weight issues and dependence on alcohol and tobacco, the next five to ten years could be a critical period.
Chaos in the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia if 'Sole Leader' Kim Jong-un becomes incapacitated
Attention to rumors about Kim Jong-un's health is due to its direct connection to regional security. While within North Korea it is simply a matter of ensuring the safety of the supreme leader and the regime, if something happens to him, it could lead to turmoil not only on the Korean Peninsula but also across Northeast Asia.
Professor Park Won-gon of Ewha Womans University’s Department of North Korean Studies warned, "North Korea should not be considered a typical socialist country." He explained, "China has a 'collective leadership system' with Politburo members besides President Xi Jinping, so even if the president has a problem, the state system can be maintained. In contrast, North Korea concentrates all authority in Kim Jong-un as the 'sole leader,' so if health issues or incapacitation occur without risk management, it could lead to chaos throughout North Korea and, further, on the Korean Peninsula and in Northeast Asia."
In North Korea, which takes the form of a closed dynasty, the leader's personal status is kept strictly secret. It is known that China is the fastest to grasp this information, followed by the United States. Professor Park said, assuming a premise, "There is a saying that only 15 people worldwide know about Kim Jong-un's issues the fastest," referring to "five of Kim Jong-un's close aides and five each from the Chinese and U.S. leadership." He added, "Since they quickly grasp the 'information' about Kim Jong-un's health status, it means they can respond steadily to events or rapid changes occurring inside North Korea."
Kim Jong-un's successor... Kim Yo-jong more likely than young daughter Ju-ae
(From left) Kim Yo-jong, Deputy Director of the Workers' Party of Korea and younger sister of Kim Jong-un, daughter Ju-ae, and wife Ri Sol-ju
If Kim Jong-un becomes incapacitated, the current top candidate for 'succession' is his younger sister, Kim Yo-jong, vice department director of the Workers' Party. While Kim Yo-jong had little presence when her brother Kim Jong-un first came to power, she has now established herself as a key figure managing and supervising inter-Korean and U.S.-North Korea relations and propaganda activities. When statements from the North Korean leadership are released through state media, those issued under Kim Yo-jong's name are regarded as reflecting Kim Jong-un's intentions with significant weight.
Western countries are also paying attention to Kim Yo-jong. On the 3rd (local time), the British daily The Times published a report focusing on Kim Yo-jong as North Korea's de facto leader. Given her unique influence beside Kim Jong-un, analysts say she is closer to the pinnacle of power than anyone else. Although Kim Jong-un's daughter Ju-ae has recently appeared more frequently, and there is interpretation that Ri Sol-ju, Kim Jong-un's wife, is trying to check the growing influence of her sister-in-law, the consensus is that it is realistically unlikely for Ju-ae, who is only of elementary school age, to take control of the regime.
Moon Sung-mook, director of the Unification Strategy Center at the Korea Institute for National Strategy, said, "If there is a problem with Kim Jong-un's whereabouts, an internal coup cannot be ruled out, but it is expected that the existing leadership, which has consolidated power around the so-called 'Baekdu bloodline' Kim family, will take control." He assessed, "In this case, the most likely scenario at present is that the regime will be maintained with Kim Yo-jong at the forefront."
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