NIS: "North Korean Projectile Experienced Technical Anomaly Due to Excessive Trajectory Change... Early Relaunch Cannot Be Ruled Out" (Comprehensive)

"Possibility of Being Stimulated by Nuriho Launch Success"
"Satellite Estimated as Basic Reconnaissance with 1m Resolution"
Information Committee Disrupted After US Eavesdropping Dispute

The National Intelligence Service (NIS) analyzed that technical issues likely occurred during an excessive trajectory change in North Korea's reconnaissance satellite launch. Regarding the possibility of North Korea attempting another satellite launch, the NIS responded that it "cannot be ruled out."

On the 31st, after the full meeting of the National Assembly Intelligence Committee, Yoo Sang-beom, the People Power Party's Intelligence Committee spokesperson, briefed that "the NIS observed that in the past, the flight paths of stages 1 and 2 were straight lines, but this time, North Korea set a trajectory skewed to the west and attempted an excessive trajectory change eastward through lateral maneuvers, which likely caused technical problems." Yoo also stated, "The failure analysis also suggested that being stimulated by the success of our Nuriho launch, North Korea shortened the usual 20-day preparation process to just a few days and hastily proceeded with construction at the new Dongchang-ri launch site before the construction issues were resolved, which contributed to the failure."

Regarding the satellite North Korea attempted to launch this time, the NIS introduced it as "a small low Earth orbit Earth observation satellite about 1.3 meters in length, weighing around 300 kg, capable only of basic reconnaissance missions with a resolution of up to approximately 1 meter." About the launch vehicle, the NIS stated, "It is the Chollima-2 type, evaluated as a new launch vehicle based on ICBM engines."

The National Assembly Intelligence Committee held a plenary session on the 31st and conducted a current affairs inquiry targeting the National Intelligence Service. During the meeting, with Kim Gyu-hyun, the head of the National Intelligence Service, in attendance, discussions were held on the controversy over North Korea's hacking attempt on the Central Election Commission, developments related to the reconnaissance satellite that North Korea notified international organizations about regarding launch plans, the possibility of North Korea's 7th nuclear test, and allegations of wiretapping and eavesdropping by U.S. intelligence agencies on the presidential office. From the left, Kim Nam-woo, Director of the National Intelligence Service's Policy Office, and Kwon Chun-taek, First Deputy Director, are having a conversation. Photo by the National Assembly Press Photographers Group

Regarding North Korea's unusual quick admission of the launch failure, the NIS interpreted it as "an attempt to highlight the legitimacy of the launch act by showing transparency in the satellite launch." Concerning additional launches, the NIS said, "It is expected to take more than several weeks to inspect and supplement engine abnormalities, but if the defects are minor, early launch cannot be ruled out." They also noted, "There is a possibility of changing the launch site from the existing reliable launch site."

The NIS assessed that North Korea's food situation has deteriorated extremely. Yoo stated, "(The NIS) reported that the food situation during the May lean season worsened, with current grain prices rising nearly 60% for corn and 30% for rice compared to the first quarter of last year, reaching the highest levels since Kim Jong-un's regime." He added that the number of starvation deaths has tripled compared to previous years, violent crimes have surged from 100 cases last year to 300 this year, and large-scale organized crimes such as throwing homemade bombs aimed at stealing supplies have also occurred.

Regarding the health condition of North Korean State Affairs Commission Chairman Kim Jong-un, the NIS reported, "North Korean authorities recently focused on collecting the latest medical information, including zolpidem for treating insomnia, for a top-level official overseas in April, leading to the presumption that Chairman Kim is suffering from significant sleep disorders." Furthermore, the NIS also reported, "They are importing large quantities of foreign cigarettes such as Marlboro and Dunhill, as well as high-quality side dishes, raising concerns that Chairman Kim's dependence on alcohol and nicotine is increasing, potentially leading to a vicious cycle of worsening insomnia."

Meanwhile, the Intelligence Committee meeting on that day was disrupted. According to opposition lawmakers, during the current affairs questioning, Democratic Party lawmaker Kim Eui-gyeom asked about allegations of U.S. wiretapping and eavesdropping on the Yongsan Presidential Office. In response, NIS Director Kim Kyu-hyun said, "It is difficult to talk about it," implying a refusal to answer. Opposition lawmakers raised issues with the response, and disputes arose between the ruling party and opposition over whether to disclose the meeting contents related to this matter. Consequently, the Intelligence Committee was unable to proceed normally and was adjourned.