[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] Military Training Begins on Northwest Islands and Jeju Island

North Korea Satellite Launch Warning Period Northwest Islands Defense Drill
First Drill in Asia... Multinational PSI Forces in Jeju Island

Amid North Korea's announcement of a military reconnaissance satellite launch next month, our military is conducting defense training on the northwestern islands, while multinational forces are carrying out the Asia-Pacific rotational exercise 'EASTERN ENDEAVOR 23' on Jeju Island.

According to the military on the 30th, the Northwestern Islands Defense Command (hereinafter referred to as NWIDC) will conduct a joint comprehensive island defense exercise involving ground, naval, air forces, and marines in the northwestern island area including Ryeongdo and Yeonpyeongdo from today until the 1st of next month. This exercise, which had been held twice a year, was not conducted since 2017 and has resumed after six years. The military explained that the exercise is conducted based on the recently changed North Korean threats, assuming various possible scenarios.

On Jeju Island, a high-level meeting of the Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI), an international cooperative body to prevent the spread of weapons of mass destruction (WMD), is being held. From today for four days, the 20th anniversary high-level meeting of PSI and the Asia-Pacific rotational exercise 'EASTERN ENDEAVOR 23' are being held on Jeju Island.

PSI is an international cooperative framework launched in 2003 under the leadership of the U.S. Bush administration to prevent the illegal proliferation of WMDs, their delivery means, and related materials. Currently, 106 countries participate. Every five years, all member countries attend a high-level meeting to review past activities, and this is the first time it is held in Asia.

Countries participating in PSI engage in various voluntary activities, including maritime interdiction, to prevent WMD materials from reaching terrorist groups, criminal organizations, or countries disregarding international norms. A representative achievement was in November 2003, when the U.S., Germany, and Italy jointly interdicted a German ship carrying centrifuges bound for Libya, which led to Libya's decision to abandon its WMD program. Although PSI does not target any specific country, North Korea has been sensitive to PSI, labeling South Korea's full participation in 2009 as a 'declaration of war.'

Notably, this meeting is held as North Korea officially announced plans to launch a satellite between the 31st of this month and the 11th of next month. The Republic of Korea and the U.S. are reportedly monitoring North Korean military movements using reconnaissance aircraft such as the RC-800, RF-16, U-2S high-altitude strategic reconnaissance aircraft, and RC-12X (Guardrail) reconnaissance aircraft. The RQ-4 Global Hawk unmanned reconnaissance drone, rotated from the Pacific Guam base to the U.S. Yokota Air Base in Japan, is also reportedly engaged in surveillance of North Korea.

Our army, navy, and air force detection equipment have also entered emergency standby. North Korea's satellite launch vehicle shares technology similar to intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), allowing our military to verify detection capabilities and recover debris from the launch vehicle that falls into the sea.

The forces currently on standby include the Navy's Aegis destroyer Sejong the Great, the Army's Green Pine radar, and the Air Force's airborne early warning and control aircraft Peace Eye, all positioned mainly around the West Sea.

If North Korea proceeds as announced, the carrier rocket carrying the satellite is expected to fly a trajectory where the first-stage booster will be dropped into international waters of the West Sea about 230 to 300 km west of Daecheon Port, Chungnam, and the fairing (satellite protective cover) will be dropped into international waters of the southwestern sea about 270 to 330 km west of Jeju Naval Base, before flying to waters approximately 700 to 1000 km east of Luzon Island, Philippines, where the second-stage booster will be dropped.

However, concerns have been raised that if North Korea significantly extends the range of this satellite launch vehicle, radar detection and debris recovery may become impossible. In 2016, the launch vehicle escaped the radar coverage of our military's Aegis destroyer over the southwestern sea near Jeju six minutes after launch, causing confusion.