Large-Scale Boat People in Case of Sudden North Korea Crisis? ... Expected Scenarios

Rapid Change Scenario, Kim Jong-un Sudden Death and Resident Uprising
"Severe North Korean Economic Crisis... Increase in Defectors Expected as COVID Controls Ease"

Earlier this month, a family defected by crossing the Northern Limit Line (NLL) in the West Sea on a fishing boat, prompting Unification Minister Kwon Young-se to mention the possibility of a large-scale 'boat people' occurrence. As investigations revealed that the family's defection was triggered by worsening economic conditions and tightened social control in North Korea, analyses suggest that a sudden crisis within North Korea could lead to a large-scale boat people exodus.

On the 24th, during a National Assembly Foreign Affairs and Unification Committee meeting, Minister Kwon responded to a question about measures against a North Korean-style mass boat people event by saying, "From the government's standpoint, it is necessary to prepare for all possibilities, including such a situation, and we are indeed preparing."

The term 'boat people' originated from refugees fleeing by small boats during and after the Vietnam War in the 1970s. It generally refers to refugees escaping sudden crises such as state collapse or regime change.

The recent question was related to concerns that a sudden crisis in North Korea could trigger a large-scale boat people event, in light of the recent family defection.

Minister Kwon attributed the background of this family defection to worsening economic conditions and the easing of COVID-19 controls in North Korea. He explained, "There is no doubt that North Korea's economic situation, especially food supply, has deteriorated compared to previous years," adding, "I believe that besides these conditions, the loosening of lockdowns due to COVID-19 also played a role." He continued, "This trend is expected to continue." This suggests that the number of defectors, which had sharply declined after the COVID-19 outbreak in North Korea in 2021, is likely to increase.

On the morning of September 24, 2019, North Korean military facilities can be seen on Hambakdo Island as viewed from Maldo-ri, Seodo-myeon, Ganghwa-gun, Incheon. Photo by Joint Press Corps

Currently, North Korea's economic situation is known to be poor. Professor Park Won-gon of Ewha Womans University’s Department of North Korean Studies explained, "Our government has mentioned this several times, and logically, North Korea has been under lockdown for three years, so its internal economy is very difficult. Especially regarding food supply, it has already been confirmed that there are significant shortages, and China is providing substantial support."

Professor Park analyzed that predictions about a sudden crisis in North Korea "are not matters of a day or two," and there could be various scenarios related to such a crisis. On the 26th, on YTN News Live, he said, "There are many different scenarios, and regardless of whether the government is progressive or conservative, it has response plans for sudden crises, which are updated annually. First, a popular uprising within North Korea could seriously challenge the current Kim Jong-un regime, potentially leading to a loss of governance."

He added, "During the sudden death of Kim Il-sung in 1994 and the 'Arduous March' period in the late 1990s, when at least one million people reportedly starved to death, discussions about the possibility of a sudden crisis in North Korea also arose." If the current regime is shaken by the leader's death, health deterioration, or economic hardship, a situation that could trigger a large-scale boat people event may arise.

Regarding the background of this family defection, worsening economic conditions and ideological education in North Korea were also cited. Professor Park said, "There was even a preschool-aged child in the family, and the North Korean regime forcibly indoctrinates the Kim Jong-un family ideology. There were issues with the overall control system itself, and it is known that the family decided to defect before enrolling the children in the public education system."