North Korea appears to be preparing a military parade at the Mirim Airfield in Pyongyang. Typically, preparations for military parades are detected about two months before the event, leading to predictions that the parade will be held on July 27, the anniversary of the Korean War armistice. There is analysis suggesting that North Korea might carry out a major provocation before the parade to showcase its military strength.
![[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] Will North Korea Deploy Military Satellite Before Military Parade?](https://cphoto.asiae.co.kr/listimglink/1/2023031610044356029_1678928683.jpg)
On the 16th, the Voice of America (VOA) reported that satellite images from the private American satellite imagery service 'Planet Labs' taken between the 14th and 15th showed 50 to 100 vehicles gathered in a vacant lot north of the Mirim Airfield in Pyongyang.
If North Korea holds a military parade, July 27 is the most likely date. This day is called 'Victory Day' by North Korea, which claims victory in the war, and military parades were held on the 40th anniversary in 1993 and the 60th anniversary in 2013. This year marks the 70th anniversary of the armistice.
Military Parade Movements Ahead of the 70th Victory Day in July... Possible Military Power Display After Satellite Launch
North Korea may also launch the 'Military Reconnaissance Satellite No. 1' before the parade. This could signal the satellite era and emphasize military strengthening during the parade. Previously, the National Aerospace Development Administration announced in December last year that preparations for the Military Reconnaissance Satellite No. 1 would be completed by April 2023, but it has not yet been launched. However, since North Korea has officially declared the 'completion' of the satellite, the launch appears imminent.
To launch a reconnaissance satellite, both the satellite and the launch vehicle must be ready. The long-range rocket for satellite launches and the intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) are technically almost identical, so it is likely that North Korea does not need much time to prepare the satellite launch vehicle. Experts believe that if weather conditions such as wind speed and direction are favorable, the launch could be carried out as early as this month.
At the upcoming G7 summit this week, the leaders of South Korea, the United States, and Japan will meet to discuss joint responses to North Korea's nuclear and missile threats. There is also speculation that North Korea, which has been quiet for a month, might use this opportunity as a pretext to resume military provocations. The trilateral summit among the three leaders is scheduled to take place during the G7 summit in Hiroshima, Japan, from July 19 to 21, with the 21st being the most likely date.
During this meeting, strategic cooperation measures to upgrade trilateral collaboration among South Korea, the United States, and Japan are expected to be discussed, including real-time sharing of North Korean missile warning information as outlined in the 'Phnom Penh Statement' from last November.
On the other hand, some analyses suggest that a launch within this month may be difficult. Considering the various technical elements required for the reconnaissance satellite launch and the burden of potential failure, it is expected that North Korea will proceed with the launch more cautiously.
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